The bigger swing factor might be on defense, not offense. Ole Miss allowed 386 yards and 32 points in the second half alone against Louisville, exposing a secondary that was already the roster's biggest question mark under first-year head coach Pete Golding. Charlotte's issues run deeper — turnovers and late-game breakdowns let The Citadel erase a deficit and win in overtime as 20.5-point underdogs. A spread this lopsided is the market's way of saying it doesn't expect Charlotte's problems to get fixed by kickoff.
Golding inherited a preseason No. 9 team and immediately answered the biggest question hanging over it — can Ole Miss function without Lane Kiffin — by winning a shootout against a ranked opponent. Tim Albin is in year 2 of a Charlotte rebuild that just took the worst possible step backward: an outright loss to an FCS opponent his own team was favored to beat by three touchdowns. The gap between those two programs' trajectories is what this game is really about.
Neither team has another game to play before this one, so whatever gets fixed — or doesn't — in practice this week is what shows up in Oxford. For Ole Miss, that means tightening up a defense that got gashed for two straight quarters. For Charlotte, it means proving the turnovers and breakdowns that sank the opener were a one-week problem, not a preview of the season.