Who is favored in Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats?

Arizona Wildcats are favored on the moneyline.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats

Oct 3, 2026·10:00 PM CT·Tucson, AZ

By JR·2 min read

CIN(4-0)

ARIZ(3-1)

10:00 PM

TLDR: Cincinnati spent all of September inside its own city limits and came out of it 4-0. Now the Bearcats get on a plane for the first time and fly into a night game in Tucson against a quarterback who just broke Nick Foles' school record.

Week 5 · SAT OCT 3, 10:00 PM CT

Cincinnati

(4-0)

WWWW

Arizona

(3-1)

WWLW

Kickoff84°11 mph

Cincinnati is 4-0 after a September played entirely at home, with 2 straight second-half comebacks, and this is its first road game of the season. Arizona is built around record-setting quarterback Noah Fifita and was last in the Big 12 in rushing, and its defense has forced almost no turnovers and struggled on third down. The game likely turns on whether Arizona can hold a lead after halftime, which it failed to do against BYU, against a Cincinnati team that has made the second half its strength.

Cincinnati Bearcats

Outscored Kansas State by nearly 3 TDs after halftime
Won 2 straight games from behind, unbeaten at 4-0
First road game of the season, 2 time zones west
Needed comebacks vs Miami (OH) and Kansas State
Forecast of 89 and clear in Tucson

Arizona Wildcats

Fifita 31-of-34, 325 yards, 4 TDs vs Northern Illinois
Came back from double digits to win in Pullman
Last in the Big 12 in rushing through 3 games
Only 1 forced turnover through 3 games
Shut out in the second half at BYU

This is a Big 12 game on Saturday, October 3, and the story is the quarterbacks, but only one of them is making news. Noah Fifita completed 31 of 34 passes for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns against Northern Illinois in a 42-17 win, then added a rushing score. That day pushed him to 10,017 career passing yards, past Foles' Arizona record of 10,011. When the Arizona offense works, it works through him, and lately it has.

Cincinnati's calling card has been the second half. The Bearcats came from behind 2 weeks running, first edging Miami (OH) 35-31 at TQL Stadium and then beating Kansas State 31-26 after outscoring the Wildcats by nearly 3 touchdowns after the break. That's a team that doesn't panic, and it's also a team that has spent 2 straight weeks digging out of holes it dug itself. The board has Arizona as a clear home favorite anyway, which says plenty about how far the market trusts a Cincinnati team that hasn't played away from home yet.

That's the fact that separates this game from the Bearcats' first 4. Boston College, Western Carolina, Miami (OH) and Kansas State all came to Cincinnati. This trip means 2 time zones, a night kickoff on the body clock, and a forecast of 89 degrees and clear in Tucson. A comeback team that needs 4 full quarters has never had to find them this far from home.

Arizona's problem is on the ground. Through 3 games the Wildcats ranked last in the Big 12 at 123.3 rushing yards per game, and coordinator Seth Doege owned it: "We should be better at running the football and it starts with me." Kedrick Resscano led the backs with 127 yards through those 3. Without a run game, everything lands on Fifita, and a Cincinnati defense that has tightened up after halftime all month can sit back and wait for him to force something.

The Arizona defense has its own leaks. Danny Gonzales said flatly that his unit is "not good enough on third down," and through 3 games it had forced exactly 1 turnover, down from 8 at the same point last season. BYU's game showed the risk. Arizona led 17-14 at halftime in Provo, got shut out after the break and lost 28-17, and Brent Brennan said afterward that his team didn't finish over the last 8 minutes.

The Wildcats did answer in Pullman, coming back from a double-digit first-quarter deficit to beat Washington State 34-24. So each team has now come from behind to win. The difference is that Arizona has done it on the road and Cincinnati hasn't had to yet. Whichever side is still playing its best football in the fourth quarter in the Tucson heat probably wins it.

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