Cincinnati has made a habit of falling apart every November, and now that habit gets tested on the road against an Iowa State program trying to prove it's more than just Matt Campbell's old roster.
Bush’s Picks
CINISU
CINISU
OverUnder
Best BetIowa State
There's no line movement or sharp money to lean on this far from kickoff, so this pick comes straight from the matchup: Cincinnati has now blown a strong November position in back-to-back seasons, and this game lands right in that window. Iowa State gets a new-coach jolt at home against a team that has repeatedly proven it can't close, and that's usually enough to win outright even with a roster in transition.
Cincinnati
+Improved record 3 straight years (3-9 to 5-5 to 7-6)
+New QB JC French IV brings proven starting production
+Started 7-1 last year, real talent on roster
−1-11 in November under Satterfield
−Back-to-back seasons of 4-plus game late collapses
−New starting QB still learning a fresh offense
Iowa State
+Went 8-4 in 2025, beat a then-No. 17 K-State team
+Transfer QB Jaylen Raynor arrives with 3 years starting experience
+New coach Jimmy Rogers won an FCS title at South Dakota State
−Lost program-building coach Matt Campbell to Penn State
−Roster battered by injuries, skipped a bowl game in 2025
−First-year staff installing a new system under Rogers
Both sidelines will be leaning on new quarterbacks by the time Friday, November 13 rolls around in Ames. Cincinnati brought in JC French IV, a Georgia Southern transfer who threw for 5,882 yards and went 15-11 as a two-year starter there, to replace Brendan Sorsby after he left for Texas Tech. Iowa State countered with Jaylen Raynor, a three-year starter at Arkansas State, to help smooth a much bigger transition happening around him.
That bigger transition is the whole story in Ames. Matt Campbell, the winningest coach in Iowa State history, bolted for Penn State in December, and the Cyclones replaced him with Jimmy Rogers off a 6-6 debut season at Washington State — though Rogers also led South Dakota State to an FCS national title two years before that. Cincinnati, meanwhile, kept Scott Satterfield around despite a second straight second-half nosedive, so continuity cuts in the Bearcats' favor even if the results haven't.
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CIN Cincinnati
ISU Iowa State
Neither program looks like a finished product walking into this one, which is exactly why it's worth tracking as the marketplace starts to price it.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Nov 6?@ Houston—
Oct 30?vs Utah—
Oct 16?@ West Virginia—
Oct 2?@ Arizona—
Sep 25?vs Kansas State—
Sep 19?vs Miami (OH)—
Sep 12?vs Western Carolina—
Sep 5?vs Boston College—
Iowa State Cyclones
Nov 6?@ Baylor—
Oct 30?vs Oklahoma State—
Oct 9?@ BYU—
Oct 2?vs West Virginia—
Sep 25?vs Utah—
Sep 19?vs Bowling Green—
Sep 12?@ Iowa—
Sep 5?vs Southeast Missouri State—
Recent form.
Iowa State's 2025 season is the more instructive data point. The Cyclones opened 5-0, including a win over a then-No. 17 Kansas State squad in Dublin, before injuries piled up and they dropped four straight. They closed with three wins but skipped a bowl game entirely, with players voting to sit out rather than play shorthanded. That's the roster Rogers inherits — talented enough to start fast, thin enough to get exposed.
Cincinnati Bearcats
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Iowa State Cyclones
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Cincinnati's problem isn't injuries, it's late-season execution. The Bearcats have improved their overall record every year in the Big 12, climbing from 3-9 to 5-5 to 7-6, and they were 7-1 and in the thick of the Big 12 title race last November before dropping four straight down the stretch, outscored 146-75 in that stretch. Satterfield is now 1-11 in November as Cincinnati's coach. A road trip to Ames in the second week of that month is precisely the kind of game this Bearcats team has repeatedly failed to win, and until they prove otherwise, that pattern is the story.
