There was one encouraging sign for the Cyclones. The 31 points in Waco were more than they had scored in their other 3 road games combined, and the most Baylor had allowed all season. That also tells you how bad the offense had been away from home, which helps explain why Ames matters so much. Iowa State's 2 wins in its last 5 both came at Jack Trice, a 45-42 win over West Virginia and a 51-49 win over Oklahoma State.
The common opponents line up oddly. Both teams got run off the field at Arizona: Cincinnati lost 34-7 and Iowa State lost 39-3. Both also played West Virginia to a 3-point finish, with opposite results. Iowa State won 45-42 at home, and Cincinnati lost 45-42 in Morgantown. These are 2 evenly matched teams that are both capable of a 40-point shootout or a no-show.
The defenses are the shared problem. Cincinnati has given up 49 to Utah and 45 to West Virginia in its last 5. Iowa State has allowed 42 or more 3 times over the same stretch. The early forecast for Ames calls for about 50 degrees, clear skies and wind around 13 mph, a week-out guess that could still change but doesn't look like it will slow anyone down.
Then there are the stakes. At 5-4, Cincinnati is 1 win from 6, the usual bowl-eligibility mark, and has lost 2 straight after a 31-24 loss at Houston. Iowa State is 4-5 and needs 2 more wins, so a home loss here would leave the Cyclones almost no margin. Whoever stops the other team's best thing, Cincinnati's run game or Iowa State's home scoring, probably keeps its season going.
