That's what makes an 11 AM ET kickoff on Saturday, September 5 such an odd one to gauge — two coaching staffs, two remade rosters, and basically zero returning-production baseline to lean on. The gap in resources and roster talent between a Big 12 program and a Sun Belt one still matters, but this version of West Virginia is largely unproven too.
History doesn't offer much of a guide here. These programs have only met once, back in 2010, a 31-0 West Virginia win that says more about the era than about either roster on the field this year. What's changed since then is that Coastal Carolina has built a real Group of 5 identity in the years since — the Chanticleers have had winning seasons and bowl trips under previous staffs — even if last year's 6-7 finish and the coaching change signal a program trying to find its footing again.
For West Virginia, the story is less about whether they win — a home opener against a rebuilding Sun Belt team is about as friendly a spot as the schedule offers — and more about whether Hawkins and a retooled offensive skill group look like a team that can hang around the middle of the Big 12. Rodriguez has publicly set the bar at making the College Football Playoff this season, which is a bold ask for a roster this unfamiliar with each other, and this opener is the first data point on whether that talk has any teeth.
Coastal Carolina's floor is lower and its margin for error is thinner. With only 5 returning starters and a redshirt freshman quarterback in Bailey making his first real test against Power 4 competition, the more realistic goal for Beard's group is simply not getting blown out and building confidence for the Sun Belt slate that actually determines their season.