Arizona State is coming off a tighter loss than the score might suggest. The Sun Devils went to Provo, traded leads with BYU, hit a 44-yard field goal late to get within a touchdown, and lost 27-20. On the road against a team that good, that's a respectable result. The problem is the rest of October, when the defense gave up 55 to Baylor at home and 53 at Texas Tech, so a lot depends on which version of that unit shows up.
The common opponents give you a decent read on both teams. Both lost to Baylor, but Colorado kept it to a 10-point game on the road while Arizona State gave up 55 at home. Both lost to Texas Tech, and Colorado managed just 7 points. Both beat Kansas State, with the Sun Devils winning 28-17 comfortably and the Buffaloes needing overtime. Colorado can usually keep a game from getting away from it. Arizona State can usually score. Neither has done both in the same week very often.
Arizona State's injury report is the longer one. Corner L. Rawls has been out with a leg injury since early October, linebacker Z. Fiaseu is on IR for the year, tight end K. Anderson is done for the season, guard W. Helton is out for an extended stretch, and receiver H. Hassmann has no timetable. On Colorado's side, tight end Z. Atkins remains out with no timetable, which is a big reason Williams is getting the high-leverage targets. Running back M. Welch's hand injury is the one to check on Colorado's final availability list before kickoff.
Weather won't be an issue tonight. Mountain America Stadium is forecast at 80 and clear, with a 6 mph breeze and a 1% chance of rain. For Colorado, the job is simple: keep this a low-scoring grind like the Baylor game rather than a shootout like the 57 it gave up in Stillwater. For Arizona State, it's the reverse. The Sun Devils have to make the Buffaloes play from behind, because Colorado showed against Texas Tech what happens when it has to chase.
The board is up now, and it has Arizona State as a short home favorite. That fits a game between 2 teams with matching problems. A Colorado loss pretty much ends the bowl push with 3 games still to play. An Arizona State win moves the Sun Devils within 1 of bowl eligibility. Expect both teams to play like it matters, because it does.
