Illinois' bigger issue isn't the guy taking snaps, it's the guys trying to bring people down. The Illini gave up 194 rushing yards to UAB in the opener, and head coach Bret Bielema pointed to an inexperienced front seven and NCAA limits on live tackling reps as the culprit rather than a deeper problem. Illinois will also be down starting right guard Brandon Henderson (lower leg, expected out 2-6 weeks) and wideout Jayshon Platt, though Platt is trending toward a return. Duke, for its part, is still figuring out its secondary after cornerback Kimari Robinson sat out the opener; Manny Diaz has said he expects most of that group back against Illinois.
Both offenses looked comfortable in Week 1 — Duke leaned on Sheppard to grind out a 17-3 win, Illinois spread the ball around behind Houser and receiver Collin Dixon's two touchdown grabs. Neither defense has been tested by anything resembling this weekend's opponent yet.
Sheppard is the swing factor here. He racked up his career-best rushing day against a Tulane front that held up fine against everyone else, and now walks into a defense that just got gashed for nearly 200 yards on the ground by a Group of Five offense. If Illinois' tackling issues are more than a small-sample fluke, Saturday is where that shows up loudest.
Weather shouldn't be a factor — Champaign is forecast clear and warm for the early-afternoon kickoff at Gies Memorial Stadium. What will matter is whether Illinois' front seven can tackle in space against a back who just proved he can find it, and whether Duke's patchwork secondary is ready for a quarterback coming off a clean, mistake-free debut.