Florida's problems run deeper than 1 bad week. The Gators have scored 15 points in their last 2 games combined, an 8-27 loss at Georgia followed by the 7-point night against Oklahoma, and Oklahoma's defense set the tone from the start. The Gators are 5-4 and 3-4 in the SEC. They need 1 more win for bowl eligibility with 3 regular-season games left, so they'll have plenty to play for in Lexington.
Kentucky's record makes them look sturdier than the scores do. The 4-game run before Knoxville included 2 wins by 35-34, at South Carolina and at home against LSU. Then came an 8-point win at Oklahoma and a 17-point win over Vanderbilt. That's a team that has learned to win close games, which isn't the same as a team that's been dominant. It also makes the 21-point fourth quarter Tennessee put on them stand out even more.
Florida does have the Texas game to point to: a 27-24 road win over the Longhorns, sitting in the middle of a stretch that's otherwise 4 losses. That's proof the Gators can win a tight game in a hostile stadium. The trouble is the 2 games since, when the offense hasn't stayed on the field long enough to make anything tight.
The forecast calls for cloudy skies around 40 degrees with an 8 mph wind, so weather shouldn't decide anything. This comes down to which offense recovers first. Kentucky needs Minchey's completions to turn into points and the line to stop handing yards back. Florida needs to string together first downs again. Whichever team manages it probably controls the second half, and that's where Kentucky came apart in Knoxville.
