TLDR: Florida just put 52 on Ole Miss. Missouri just lost its SEC opener in Starkville. On Saturday, October 3, the Gators have to prove it wasn't a one-week high, and the Tigers have to prove the Mississippi State loss was.
Unbeaten Florida travels to Columbia after beating Ole Miss 52-28 behind 2 backs who each ran for more than 120 yards. Missouri is 3-1 after a 7-point loss at Mississippi State and is still without All-American back Ahmad Hardy. The game should turn on whether Missouri's defense can slow Florida's ground game and whether Austin Simmons can keep the Tigers close if it can't.
+Simmons was efficient early: 292 yards, 3 TDs at Kansas
+Home after a 1-score road loss
+Cayden Green anchors the offensive line
−Ahmad Hardy still out, return date unknown
−Passing game frustrated Drinkwitz even in September wins
−Lost SEC opener to Mississippi State
This is the next game for both teams, and they arrive from opposite directions. Florida is unbeaten in the first season under Jon Sumrall, and the offense has run through the backfield. Against Ole Miss, Jadan Baugh ran for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns and Duke Clark added 126 yards and a score. Put 2 backs over 120 yards in an SEC game and you get the 52-28 final. Missouri is 3-1, and the 1 is a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State that went down to the end.
The Florida offense wasn't a one-off. A week before Ole Miss, the Gators went for 495 yards at Auburn and won there for the first time since 1999. They opened by putting 66 on Florida Atlantic. On the other side, Austin Simmons won the Missouri quarterback job after transferring from Ole Miss and was efficient early, going 19 of 29 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns at Kansas. New coordinator Chip Lindsey, who came over from Michigan, runs the offense. The books have Florida as a clear road favorite, which is a big vote of confidence for a team in Columbia.
Missouri's question is the running game. Ahmad Hardy was a preseason All-American, but he was shot in the thigh in May and his return date is still unknown. Jamal Roberts has carried much of the early load. Cayden Green, a preseason first-team All-SEC pick, anchors a line that now has to hold up against a Florida front that just watched its own backs run through Ole Miss.
There's also the schedule spot to consider. Florida is coming off its biggest win of the Sumrall era and heads straight into a road SEC game. A letdown is possible, but Florida hasn't shown one yet. Missouri comes back home with a week to fix whatever went wrong in Starkville. Eliah Drinkwitz spent part of September frustrated with the passing game even in wins, so how Simmons looks against a real SEC defense at home is the swing factor for the Tigers.
The forecast is warm, in the mid-80s, with a small chance of showers and a light wind. It isn't enough to change how either offense plays. The game should come down to whether Missouri can do what Ole Miss couldn't and slow down Baugh and Clark, and whether Simmons can keep up if the Tigers can't.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff54-14