Florida shocked Texas in Gainesville last October. Twelve months, a coaching change, and a portal overhaul later, the Longhorns get their shot back — this time at home.
Bush’s Picks
FLATEX
FLATEX
OverUnder
Best BetTexas
Texas is the far more talented roster on paper, and hosting a team it's already fed a loss to should make this an easier outright win the second time around. Manning's extra year of experience plus a retooled offense around him makes the Longhorns the side to trust straight-up. Florida's still sorting out who's even taking the snaps.
Florida
+Elite returning defensive production, projected top-12 unit nationally
+Already beat this Texas team last season
+New OC Buster Faulkner brings scheme continuity from Georgia Tech
−Total quarterback battle unresolved under first-year coach
−Lost top young passer DJ Lagway to the portal
−Program still rebuilding after in-season coaching firing
Texas
+Arch Manning returns with a full season of starting reps
+Landed the nation's top transfer WR in Cam Coleman plus new backs
+Ranked among the sport's most talented rosters for 2026
−Missed the Playoff at 10-3 despite preseason No. 1 hype
−Fired defensive coordinator, new staff continuity questions
−Lost to this same Florida team on the road last year
Arch Manning is back for year 2 as Texas's starter, and this time he's not walking in as the most-hyped, least-tested quarterback in the country — he's got a full, uneven season on his resume and a coaching staff that insists he's playing better football than his stat line showed down the stretch. Florida's picture is the opposite: DJ Lagway, the freshman who beat Texas outright a year ago, is gone to Baylor, and new coach Jon Sumrall is still running an open quarterback competition with no clear frontrunner months out from kickoff.
The bigger swing might be off the field. Texas fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and handed the defense to Will Muschamp, while also landing the No. 1 transfer receiver in the country in Cam Coleman and a pair of new running backs to load up around Manning. Florida, meanwhile, is rebuilding from scratch under Sumrall after Billy Napier's midseason firing, leaning on a defense that returns as much production as almost anyone in the country while the offense figures itself out. The market already sees the gap — Texas opens as the more loaded roster on paper.
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FLA Florida
TEX Texas
That's the tension here: a Texas team with real playoff-contender talent hosting the exact Florida team that already beat it once, at a moment when neither program looks anything like it did in October 2025.
Florida Gators
Oct 9?vs South Carolina—
Oct 2?@ Missouri—
Sep 25?vs Ole Miss—
Sep 19?@ Auburn—
Sep 12?vs Campbell—
Sep 5?vs Florida Atlantic—
Texas Longhorns
Oct 10?@ Oklahoma—
Sep 26?@ Tennessee—
Sep 19?vs UTSA—
Sep 12?vs Ohio State—
Sep 5?vs Texas State—
Recent form.
Florida's win in Gainesville last year wasn't a fluke on paper — Lagway threw for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Gators got to Manning enough late to rattle him. That result is exactly why Sarkisian's staff isn't sleeping on this one, even hosting a Florida team that's supposed to be far less talented this time around.
By the time this one kicks off on Friday, October 16, both rosters will look different than they do in July — Florida's quarterback competition should be settled, Texas's new pieces will have had a full fall camp to gel, and everyone will finally know whether either preseason ranking actually means anything.
