FIU's season splits cleanly by location. At home the Panthers beat Buffalo 33-20, Long Island 20-3 and New Mexico State 22-3. On the road they scored 9 at South Florida and 10 at Florida Atlantic and lost both. This is their 3rd road trip of the year, and the offense hasn't reached double digits away from Miami yet.
Long Island University20-3
Eastern Kentucky49-7The defense is the reason FIU is 3-2. It has allowed 61 points in 5 games, and no opponent has scored more than 20. Even the 2 road losses were low-scoring, at 19 and 16 points allowed. If the Panthers win this game, it will look like their other wins: hold the opponent in the teens, keep the ball, and make Jacksonville State earn every first down.
Jacksonville State has lived on thin margins. The last 4 games went: lose by 2 in 4 overtimes, win by 4, win by 10, win by 1. The Gamecocks are 3-1 in that stretch, which reflects both how they've played late in games and how close those games have been. Several of those finishes could have gone the other way.
The injury report is the real question for the home team. Receivers R. Pinto and L. Watkins were both listed out for Kennesaw State with undisclosed injuries. Running back A. Paul is expected to miss the rest of the season. Jacksonville State still scored 27 without those 2 receivers, but scoring 27 against Kennesaw State is easier than doing it against a defense that has kept 5 straight opponents at 20 or fewer. Whether Pinto and Watkins are back on a short week will tell you a lot about what Creel has to work with.
Here's how it shapes up: a home team that's 3-0 in its building and keeps finding ways through close games, against a road team whose defense travels but whose offense hasn't yet. Neither side has a lot of room for error.