Florida State walked into Alabama's season opener last year and blew it up. Now the Crimson Tide get their shot at payback, at home, with a lot more than pride hanging in the balance.
Bush’s Picks
FSUALA
FSUALA
OverUnder
Best BetAlabama
Alabama enters with the deeper track record — an 11-4 season and a CFP trip a year ago — and catching Florida State at home feels like real value even with a new starting quarterback under center. FSU still hasn't found stability behind Ashton Daniels' turnover history, and building an offensive line from scratch on the road in Tuscaloosa is a tall task. Back the Tide to atone for last year's opening-week face-plant.
Florida State
+Beat Alabama 31-17 in last year's opener
+Duce Robinson (56 catches, 1,081 yards) returns
+Daniels brings 23 career starts of experience
−Returns zero starters on the offensive line
−Daniels has a 5-18 record as a starter
−Finished 5-7, missed a bowl, Norvell on hot seat
Alabama
+Went 11-4 and reached the CFP in 2025
+Beat 4 straight ranked teams last fall
+Hosting with clear revenge motivation
−Lost starting QB Ty Simpson to the NFL
−Mack vs. Russell battle still unresolved
−Got blown out 38-3 by Indiana in the playoff
Ashton Daniels is FSU's answer at quarterback, arriving via Auburn and Stanford with 23 career starts already on his resume and only 5 wins to show for it. He beat out a room of unproven arms in Kevin Sperry, Dean DeNobile and Jaden O'Neal, but his 24:22 career interception-to-touchdown ratio and 16 fumbles are exactly the kind of mistakes Mike Norvell can't afford this season. Alabama's answer is still a live question — Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are grinding through a summer-long battle to replace Ty Simpson, who's off to the NFL, with Russell reportedly the slight favorite after adding real weight to his frame this offseason.
Whoever wins that job inherits a defense that helped Alabama string together 4 straight wins over ranked opponents a year ago, while Daniels inherits an offensive line that returns zero starters — a real problem against an SEC front seven. Neither program is walking in fully settled, which is part of why this one shapes up closer to a genuine question mark than a laugher.
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FSU Florida State
ALA Alabama
The backstory here writes itself. FSU walked into last year's opener and hung 31 points on Alabama in a 31-17 win, a result that kickstarted a 3-0 start for the Seminoles before the wheels came off — 4 straight losses down the stretch left them 5-7 and out of a bowl game, and kept Norvell on the hottest seat in college football entering 2026. Alabama, meanwhile, used that gut-punch as a launching pad, eventually reaching the College Football Playoff before getting run off the field 38-3 by Indiana in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.
Florida State Seminoles
Sep 7?vs SMU—
Aug 29?vs New Mexico State—
Alabama Crimson Tide
Sep 12?@ Kentucky—
Sep 5?vs East Carolina—
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FSU's calling card this time is its receiving corps. Duce Robinson's decision to return after a 56-catch, 1,081-yard, 6-touchdown breakout gives Daniels a legitimate No. 1, with Micahi Danzey (27 catches, 571 yards) as a complementary piece. Alabama counters with a proven program identity even in transition — DeBoer's group beat Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee back-to-back-to-back-to-back last fall, proof the roster talent hasn't gone anywhere even if the quarterback room has.
For Norvell, this is close to a must-win to quiet the hot-seat noise before ACC play even starts. For DeBoer, it's a chance to erase the one result from 2025 that still stings — on a home field where a repeat upset would sting a whole lot more.
