The board hasn't posted a number for this one yet, so the betting angle waits. The football doesn't. Both teams played SMU. Florida State lost to the Mustangs 27-24 in Tallahassee, and Louisville beat them 41-31 at home 2 weeks later. That's the only shared result, and it points toward the home team. Since then the 2 programs have gone opposite ways: Florida State has won 2 straight and Louisville has lost 2 straight.
Central Arkansas34-7
Villanova59-13
Louisville's 2-3 record looks worse than the team has played. A 41-38 loss at Ole Miss, 30-27 to Wake Forest at home, then 31-28 at NC State. That's 3 losses by a combined 9 points, and the Cardinals scored at least 27 in every one. The offense is fine. The problem has been getting a stop late, and with Watts gone for the year, the secondary that has to make those stops just got thinner.
Florida State needs to show it can win away from Doak Campbell. Its only road game this season was a 50-36 loss at Alabama, and its 2 recent blowouts came at home against Central Arkansas and Virginia. A Friday night in Louisville against a team scoring this much is a different test. Early forecasts call for a clear, warm evening with almost no wind, though that can change 6 days out. If it holds, nothing about the weather slows down either offense.
So the game comes down to whether Louisville can finish one for once. The Cardinals have hung around with everyone, and Florida State has looked like a different team over the last 2 weeks. If Daniels runs it the way he did against Virginia against a secondary missing Watts, Louisville is probably looking at another close loss. If Kienholz is healthy and the defense gets 1 late stop, Louisville finally wins one of these.