Fresno State Bulldogs at Texas State Bobcats

Nov 14, 20263:00 PM CTCWSan Marcos, TX
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Two 5-4 teams, both 1 win short of bowl eligibility, meet in San Marcos with very different last Saturdays. Texas State just ran for 386 yards. Fresno State ran for 16.

SAT 11/14, 3:00 PM CT · Week 11CW
Kickoff 66°10 mph

Fresno State and Texas State are both 5-4 and a win from bowl eligibility, but they arrive in opposite shape: the Bulldogs managed 16 rushing yards in a loss at Utah State, while the Bobcats ran for 386 in a road rout of Oregon State. Fresno's hopes rest on Mandal's arm and its defense slowing a Texas State ground game that has scored in bunches all month. Texas State has the home field and the better result against the one common opponent the two teams split on.

Fresno State Bulldogs
  • Mandal: 262 yards, no picks at Utah State
  • Beat Oregon State by 16, Washington State by 20
  • Played Boise and SDSU within one score
  • 16 rushing yards on 27 carries at Utah State
  • 73 first-half yards, down 14 at halftime
  • Utah State beat them; Texas State beat Utah State
Texas State Bobcats
  • 600 yards, 386 rushing at Oregon State
  • Burgess 196 yards, Jackson 3 rushing TDs
  • Beat Utah State, the defense that stuffed Fresno
  • Lost one-score road games at Boise and SDSU
  • Allowed 46 at Boise, 31 at SDSU

Fresno State's offense right now is Jayden Mandal and not much else. He went 22-of-39 for 262 yards, 1 touchdown and no picks in the 17-10 loss at Utah State, and he was the reason it got close at the end. The run game gave him no help at all: 27 carries for 16 yards, 0.6 a pop. A quarterback can drag an offense through one game like that. Asking him to do it on the road against a team that just put up 42 is a lot.

The Utah State game fell apart early. The Bulldogs had 73 yards at halftime, their worst half of the season, and were already down 14. Safety Ethan Tierney was ejected for targeting in the first quarter. Mandal hit Ezekiel Avit for a 12-yard score with 1:30 left, Utah State recovered the onside kick, and that was it. The books have Texas State as a clear home favorite, and after that performance it's hard to argue.

Texas State is coming in from the other direction. The Bobcats went to Corvallis and put 600 yards on Oregon State in a 42-21 win, 386 of them on the ground. Torrance Burgess Jr. ran for 196 and a score, and Davian Jackson went over 100 with 3 rushing touchdowns. So the team that just ran for almost 400 yards is hosting the team that just couldn't run at all.

11/08L@Utah State10-17
11/01WvsOregon State38-22
10/18L@San Diego State23-26
10/11Lvs17Boise State31-38
10/04W@Washington State26-6
11/08W@Oregon State42-21
11/01L@17Boise State45-46
10/24WvsUtah State20-17
10/16WvsColorado State66-27
10/04L@San Diego State29-31

The common opponents make this matchup interesting. Both teams lost to Boise State and San Diego State by a single score, and both beat Oregon State comfortably. The difference is Utah State. Texas State beat the Aggies 20-17 at home, and the Aggies are the ones who just held Fresno to 16 rushing yards. Texas State also took Boise to the wire in a 46-45 shootout on the blue turf. Fresno lost to the Broncos by 7 at home.

There's plenty on the line for a game between 2 unranked teams. Fresno State is 2-3 in the Pac-12 and needs 1 more win to get bowl-eligible. Texas State is 3-2 in the league and also sitting at 5 wins. The early forecast for Saturday, November 14 looks good: 69 degrees, clear, and a 12 mph breeze. Nothing there to slow down a Bobcats offense that has scored 42 or more 3 times in its last 5. Fresno's front 7 has to hold up against the run for 4 quarters, and the offense has to find any kind of ground game so Mandal isn't throwing on every down.

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