Two of the best mid-major stories of 2025 just got promoted, and they're testing each other out in the new league's first season.
Bush’s Picks
FRESTXST
FRESTXST
OverUnder
Best BetTexas State
Texas State's case for the moneyline starts with certainty at quarterback, something Fresno State simply doesn't have this far out. Brad Jackson is an established, proven starter walking into his third year, while the Bulldogs are still sorting out QB1 in fall camp. That gap matters more in a game like this than the raw win totals from last season.
Fresno State
+Went 9-4 and won the Arizona Bowl in Entz's debut
+First-ever season in a power conference for the program
−Crowded, unresolved QB battle between Martin and Mandal
−Lost a backup QB and a tight end to the portal
Texas State
+Kinne locked up on a 7-year extension through 2031
+Brad Jackson returns off a 4,128-total-yard breakout
+Third straight bowl trip, capped by a 41-10 rout of Rice
Fresno State and Texas State spent last season proving they belonged somewhere bigger. Now they both got the call: the Bulldogs bolted the Mountain West and the Bobcats left the Sun Belt to help build the relaunched Pac-12, and their Week 11 crossover on Saturday, November 14 is a genuine measuring-stick game between two programs on the way up rather than the old-league mismatch this fixture would've been a year ago.
Fresno State's path here was the flashier one. Matt Entz walked into Fresno, went 9-4 in year one, and closed it out with an 18-3 win over Miami (Ohio) in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl — tying Tim DeRuyter for the second-most wins by a first-year Bulldogs coach ever. The only real question mark is under center, where Maryland transfer Khristian Martin is competing with 2025 backup Jayden Mandal for the job, with the answer still months from settling.
Show fees
3:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
FRES Fresno State
TXST Texas State
Texas State's case is built on stability instead. G.J. Kinne signed a seven-year extension through 2031 that made him the highest-paid coach in the Sun Belt, and the payoff was a third straight bowl trip capped by a 41-10 rout of Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl. The headliner is quarterback Brad Jackson, who piled up 4,128 yards of total offense as a redshirt freshman and returns for his third year in San Marcos as a known commodity — something Fresno State can't say about its own quarterback room right now.
Fresno State Bulldogs
Nov 7?@ Utah State—
Oct 30?vs Oregon State—
Oct 17?@ San Diego State—
Oct 10?vs Boise State—
Oct 3?@ Washington State—
Sep 26?vs Rice—
Sep 19?@ San José State—
Sep 12?vs Sacramento State—
Sep 4?@ USC—
Texas State Bobcats
Nov 7?@ Oregon State—
Oct 31?@ Boise State—
Oct 15?vs Colorado State—
Oct 3?@ San Diego State—
Sep 26?vs Incarnate Word—
Sep 19?vs North Texas—
Sep 12?vs UTSA—
Sep 5?@ Texas—
Recent form.
Texas State's 7-6 record undersells how the season actually went; a 3-5 Sun Belt mark came with a bowl win that looked nothing like a middling year, and Jackson dragging the offense by both arm and legs is the reason. Fresno State's 9-4 finish is the gaudier number, but it comes with more turnover to sort through this offseason, including a backup quarterback and a tight end gone via the portal. Both programs are walking into a new conference with real expectations instead of just hoping to survive it.
There's no real history between these two — this is a fresh matchup born out of realignment, not a rivalry renewal. That makes it more of a proving-ground game: whichever team looks more ready for Pac-12 football by mid-November tells you something about how the whole new-look league is going to shake out in year one.
