Look at what came before that, though. Georgia State had lost 3 straight: 49-22 at James Madison, 38-32 at Arkansas State and 31-20 at home to Coastal Carolina. A defense that gave up 30 or more in all 3 of those games now faces a Georgia Southern team that just put up 49.
These 2 have played 4 of the same opponents, and it's the best way to compare them. Both lost to James Madison, but Georgia Southern lost by 3 and Georgia State lost by 27. Both beat Old Dominion, and the Panthers' 42-10 win was the more impressive one. Both beat App State. The Eagles won 19-3 at home, the Panthers 39-23 on the road. Against Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern won on the road and Georgia State lost at home. The Eagles come out ahead most of the time, but not every time.
Weather won't be a big factor beyond the wind. The forecast at Center Parc Stadium is 49 degrees and clear with a 1% chance of rain, but wind is expected around 14 mph. That can push teams toward the run game and make field goals harder. It helps Georgia Southern, which has been winning with defense. It also means Layous's range could come into play.
The stakes are simple. A win gets either team to 6, and Georgia Southern is still in the Sun Belt race at 4-1. Georgia State is trying to show the App State win means its season has turned around, after a month that said otherwise. There are no odds posted for this one yet, so the matchup is the story for now: the Eagles' defense against a Panthers offense that just put up 39.
