Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils

Oct 10, 20268:30 PM CTFS1Tempe, AZ
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Hawai'i flies into the desert with 1 win in 4 tries and an offense that can't finish drives. Arizona State has spent most of the season looking like the more complete team, and it's hard to see how Mountain America Stadium on a Saturday night changes that.

Week 6 · 10/10, 8:30 PM CTFS1
Kickoff87°

Hawai'i comes to Tempe at 1-3, with an offense that scored on 2 of 8 drives at Wyoming and a receiver room losing players. Arizona State is 2-1, and its only loss was a turnover-filled game at Texas A&M where the defense still held up. The deciding matchup is ASU's pass rush, led by Jalen Thompson, against an Alejado-led passing game that has to throw a lot to move the ball. The board has not posted lines for this game yet.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
  • Alejado willing to throw 40-plus times and sling it
  • Defense held Wyoming to 27 despite offense's stalls
  • 90 first-half yards at Wyoming, 2 of 8 drives scored
  • WR depth thinning: Haynes done, Ashlock out extended
  • QB depth shaky with Jaramilla-Phe out, Alejado's arm listed
Arizona State Sun Devils
  • Held Texas A&M to 255 yards, 4.3 per play
  • Thompson owns 11 of the team's 28 pressures
  • Home in 92-degree heat against an island team

This one comes down to the quarterbacks and the guys protecting them. Micah Alejado has been Hawai'i's guy, and he's been working with a short bench behind him: Jaramilla-Phe was listed out heading into the Wyoming game, and Alejado has carried a questionable tag for an arm injury since mid-September. He played through it in the 27-10 loss at Wyoming, going 28-for-44 for 226 yards and a touchdown. That's a lot of throws for not much yardage. Whatever state that arm is in by Saturday, October 10 is the first thing to watch.

That Wyoming game laid out the whole problem. Hawai'i managed 90 total yards in the first half and scored on 2 of its 8 drives, and Hawai'i's own athletics site said the offense couldn't find a rhythm all afternoon. The receiver room keeps getting thinner, too. R. Haynes IV was shut down for the season back in September, and P. Ashlock went on the report October 1 with an undisclosed injury that will cost him an extended stretch. When a team throws 44 times to get to 10 points, losing pass catchers hurts more than usual.

Arizona State's season has a clear outlier in it: the 48-20 loss at Texas A&M. Kenny Dillingham put that one on 4 turnovers, saying the Sun Devils can lose to anybody if they give it away like that. Arizona Sports noted the defense actually held the Aggies to 255 total yards at 4.3 yards per play. Before Hawai'i comes to town, ASU also has its Big 12 home opener against Baylor and DJ Lagway, so check that result for how the defense handled a true pocket passer.

10/04LvsSan José State16-20
09/26L@Wyoming10-27
09/13WvsNew Mexico State29-19
09/06LvsUNLV6-21
08/29L@Stanford27-37
10/04LvsBaylor19-55
09/19W@Kansas24-17
09/12L@Texas A&M20-48
09/06WvsMorgan State70-7

The matchup to watch is the ASU pass rush against Hawai'i's passing volume. Jalen Thompson has 11 of the Sun Devils' 28 pressures, per Arizona Sports, and Baylor transfer Emar'rion Winston has added 4 pressures and a sack. If Hawai'i needs 40-plus throws again, Thompson gets a lot of chances to win his matchup, and a quarterback who's been nursing his arm since September is the one taking the hits.

Arizona State has its own injuries. TE K. Anderson is expected to miss the rest of the season, guard W. Helton is out for an extended period, and LB Z. Fiaseu is on IR with a knee injury. Losing a guard and a tight end weakens the run blocking, but the ASU front would still be the better line on the field. The forecast calls for 92 degrees in Tempe, and Hawai'i's football is less of a fit for that heat than the home team's.

Hawai'i's season is already in trouble at 0-2 in Mountain West play, and it's a long trip to play a Big 12 team in a nonconference game. The way the Rainbow Warriors stay in it is to keep the score low, avoid giving up big plays, and hope ASU turns it over like it did in College Station. Arizona State's job is simpler: hold onto the ball and let the defense do the rest.

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devils — Hawai'i Heads to Tempe Looking for Any Offense at All | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush