Hawai'i is chasing a Group of Six playoff spot. Nevada is still trying to figure out who's throwing the ball. This one has mismatch written all over it.
Bush’s Picks
HAWNEV
HAWNEV
OverUnder
Best BetHawai'i
Hawai'i brings a proven starting quarterback, a reloaded transfer class, and a 2025 season that ended in a bowl win — Nevada is still auditioning quarterbacks months out from kickoff. Until the Wolf Pack settle that battle and show it translates to points, backing the more established program on the moneyline is the play. This has the makings of a fairly lopsided outright result on paper.
Hawai'i
+Went 9-4 in 2025, ended a bowl drought
+Reigning MW Preseason Offensive Player at QB
+Reloaded via transfer portal (Harris, Hughes)
−Alejado managing an ankle injury into fall camp
−Tough non-conference slate (Stanford, Arizona State) first
Nevada
+Offensive line was fourth-fewest sacks allowed in MW
+Multiple backs topped 300 rushing yards in 2025
+Home game at Mackay Stadium vs a marquee visitor
−Finished 3-9, averaged just 17.6 points a game
−Unresolved QB battle between Jones and Duncan
The quarterback rooms tell the whole story here. Micah Alejado, the reigning Mountain West Preseason Offensive Player of the Year, is Hawai'i's guy as long as his ankle cooperates through fall camp — he's been managing the injury since the offseason but the Rainbow Warriors have every intention of building around him. Nevada, meanwhile, is still sorting out its QB1 between Carter Jones and transfer Luke Duncan, with Duncan's Power Four arm talent pushing Jones for reps and long-shot AJ Bianco lurking as the incumbent depth option.
Hawai'i didn't just win last season, it reloaded. The transfer portal brought in pieces like former Washington receiver Audric Harris and former Michigan State QB Jeremiah Hughes, giving a program that already broke a five-year bowl drought even more juice heading into a schedule that includes trips to Stanford and Arizona State. Nevada's answer is a rebuilt offensive coordinator setup and a genuinely improved offensive line — Jeff Choate's group allowed just 18 sacks last year, fourth-fewest in the conference — but that unit still has to prove it can move the ball behind whichever quarterback wins the job.
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HAW Hawai'i
NEV Nevada
By the time this one kicks off in late November, both programs will have a much clearer picture of who they actually are. Hawai'i will have tested itself against Power Four competition and a full Mountain West slate; Nevada will have had a full season to find out if its QB battle produced an actual answer. That gap in known-quantity talent is exactly why the Rainbow Warriors look like the safer side on paper this far out.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Nov 14?vs North Dakota State—
Nov 6?@ UTEP—
Oct 16?vs New Mexico—
Oct 9?@ Arizona State—
Oct 3?vs San José State—
Sep 26?@ Wyoming—
Sep 12?vs New Mexico State—
Sep 5?vs UNLV—
Aug 29?@ Stanford—
Nevada Wolf Pack
Nov 13?@ Northern Illinois—
Nov 6?vs New Mexico—
Oct 30?@ UCLA—
Oct 17?@ North Dakota State—
Oct 9?@ UTEP—
Sep 25?vs Air Force—
Sep 19?@ Middle Tennessee—
Sep 12?vs Montana State—
Sep 5?vs Western Kentucky—
Recent form.
Nevada's home slate isn't soft, either — Hawai'i and New Mexico, both bowl-caliber outfits in 2025, are on the docket at Mackay Stadium, and hosting one of the West's rising Group of Six programs is as good a measuring-stick game as Choate's rebuild will get. But a 3-9 season built on an offense that averaged just 17.6 points a game doesn't fix itself overnight, no matter how many running backs cracked 300 yards on the ground.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Nevada Wolf Pack
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
This is still a preview written months out — quarterback battles shift, injuries heal or linger, and depth charts get rewritten in August and September. But right now, Hawai'i walks in with the more proven quarterback, the deeper transfer class, and a program with actual playoff buzz behind it. Nevada's path to flipping that script runs through an offensive line that's finally worth building on.
