Hawai'i pulled off the road upset in Palo Alto last summer, and now the Rainbow Warriors get another shot at a Stanford program that's still rebuilding from the ground up.
Bush’s Picks
HAWSTAN
HAWSTAN
OverUnder
Best BetHawai'i
Hawai'i already has this Stanford program's number, having won in Palo Alto a year ago behind a passing attack that returns largely intact. The Cardinal are rolling out a new permanent head coach and an unsettled quarterback competition, which is exactly the kind of uncertainty that favors backing the more stable program. Take Hawai'i to win outright again.
Hawai'i
+Returning QB Alejado: 3,100+ yards, 24 TDs in 2025
+Beat Stanford last season, program-best 9-4 finish
+Coach Timmy Chang enters 5th season, real stability
−Just 5-3 in Mountain West play last season
−Long mainland trip to open the season again
−Coming off a program-best year, regression risk
Stanford
+New permanent HC Tavita Pritchard, alum, fresh direction
+Interim staff sparked a 4-win mini revival in 2025
+Portal QB Davis Warren brings starting experience
−Troy Taylor fired amid misconduct investigation, program turmoil
−Finished 4-8, 3-5 in first ACC season, no bowl
−QB room unsettled between Warren and a true freshman
Saturday, August 29 kicks off year 5 of the Timmy Chang era in Honolulu, with sophomore quarterback Micah Alejado — who threw for over 3,100 yards and 24 touchdowns a year ago — squaring off against a Stanford quarterback room that's still sorting itself out. The Cardinal enter with new permanent head coach Tavita Pritchard after Frank Reich's interim stint steadied the ship in 2025, and portal addition Davis Warren projects as the frontrunner under center, but nothing at Stanford is settled the way it is in Honolulu.
Continuity is the whole story here. Chang is under contract through at least 2026 and coming off the best season of his tenure — a 9-4 finish capped by a Hawai'i Bowl win over Cal — while Stanford is still cleaning up after Troy Taylor's firing amid a misconduct investigation and a 4-8 debut in the ACC. That kind of instability at the top is exactly why a program with a proven quarterback and a settled coach can hang around against a Power 4 opponent.
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HAW Hawai'i
STAN Stanford
None of that guarantees a repeat of last year's finish, when Kansei Matsuzawa's 38-yard field goal walked it off for Hawai'i, 23-20. Stanford's new staff gets a full offseason to install its system instead of scrambling through a coaching change mid-camp, and a home opener under a fresh head coach tends to bring some juice with it.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Stanford Cardinal
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The Rainbow Warriors also have real questions to answer. This is a team that finished only 5-3 in Mountain West play, a reminder their gaudy overall record leaned partly on a favorable non-conference slate — this exact game included. Alejado's return keeps the passing attack humming, but Hawai'i has never made a habit of running away from teams on the road, and a trip across the Pacific to open a season remains one of the toughest travel spots in the sport.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Stanford Cardinal
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Whichever way it breaks, both programs are treating this as their first real data point of the season. Stanford wants proof the Pritchard era can compete early; Hawai'i wants proof last year's opener wasn't a one-off. That tension alone makes Saturday, August 29 worth a look before either team plays a single conference snap.
