Houston shows up in Manhattan as one of the trendiest teams in the Big 12. Kansas State shows up trying to prove last year was a blip, not a trend.
Bush’s Picks
HOUKSU
HOUKSU
OverUnder
Best BetHouston
Houston's the more proven commodity here — a 10-win team last season with its quarterback back and preseason buzz as a top-5 Big 12 team. Kansas State is starting over at head coach and coming off a season that ended without a bowl game, which is a lot of variance to trust on the road against a ranked-caliber roster. Take the Cougars to win outright.
Houston
+Coming off 10-2, No. 22 finish last season
+Weigman back with full healthy offseason
+Added playmakers in Hughes and Trent Walker
−Replaced two key defensive linemen via portal
−New D-line pieces still need to gel
−Road trip into hostile Friday-night crowd
Kansas State
+Avery Johnson elite dual-threat returning starter
+Joe Jackson set school rushing record in 2025
+Added backfield depth via Oregon, Oklahoma State transfers
−Finished 6-6, skipped bowl game in 2025
−First-year head coach installing new systems
−Picked near bottom of Big 12 in preseason polls
Houston is coming off a 10-2 season and a No. 22 finish, and the Cougars didn't lose the guy who got them there. Conner Weigman is back for a full offseason in Ramon Fritz's system, and by his coach's own account the quarterback added strength, speed and arm velocity after finally getting a normal winter of training instead of rehabbing. Kansas State counters with its own dual-threat problem for opposing defenses in Avery Johnson, who threw for 2,385 yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 477 yards and 8 scores on the ground in 2025.
The roster turnover on both sides is real. Houston leaned on the portal to replace departed defensive linemen Carlos Allen and Eddie Walls III, bringing in Ejiro Egodogbare, De'Marion Thomas and Ashton Porter to rebuild the front. On offense, transfer running back Makhi Hughes — who ran for just under 2,800 yards in two seasons between Tulane and Oregon — gives Weigman a legitimate ground threat next to wideout Amare Thomas. Kansas State's answer up front is running back Joe Jackson, who set the school's single-season rushing record in 2025 and now shares a backfield with transfer additions Jay Harris (Oregon) and Rodney Fields (Oklahoma State).
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HOU Houston
KSU Kansas State
Where these programs are pointed couldn't be more different right now. Houston is drawing preseason Big 12 projections in the top 5, with some outlooks pegging the Cougars for another double-digit win season. Kansas State, meanwhile, stumbled to 6-6 in 2025, skipped a bowl game amid the coaching change, and enters the year picked around 7th in the conference under first-year head coach Collin Klein — a former Wildcat quarterback himself trying to get the program back to where it was under four straight bowl trips before last year's dip.
Houston Cougars
Oct 2?vs UCF—
Sep 25?@ Georgia Southern—
Sep 18?@ Texas Tech—
Sep 12?vs Southern—
Sep 5?vs Oregon State—
Kansas State Wildcats
Sep 25?@ Cincinnati—
Sep 19?vs Tulane—
Sep 12?vs Washington State—
Sep 5?vs Nicholls—
Recent form.
Klein's pitch to Manhattan is a favorable path through the schedule and a roster that still has real pieces — Johnson and Jackson are as good a QB-RB combo as anyone in the league has, even if the surrounding cast and coaching staff are new. Houston's questions are more about integration than talent: a defensive line built largely through the portal has to gel fast against a K-State offense built to grind out possessions and steal explosive plays on the ground.
This is a Friday night game in Manhattan, which alone raises the stakes for a Kansas State program looking for any signature moment to validate the Klein era early. For Houston, it's a measuring-stick road trip in a league where the Cougars are being talked about as a legitimate contender for the first time in years.
