Two of the Big 12's preseason contenders collide in Lubbock before September's even over, and one of them is trotting out a quarterback who hasn't taken a live snap in almost a year.
Bush’s Picks
HOUTTU
HOUTTU
OverUnder
Best BetTexas Tech
Texas Tech's roster is deeper and more talented top to bottom than Houston's, especially with a linebacker corps that graded out among the nation's best in the preseason. The catch is Will Hammond hasn't played meaningful snaps since tearing his ACL, so there's real risk the talent gap doesn't show up cleanly in year one under center. Still, at home against a Houston pass rush that stalled down the stretch last season, Tech's the right side to trust to win outright.
Houston
+Weigman back healthy off Texas Bowl MVP run
+Amare Thomas emerging as go-to receiver
+favorable schedule dodges several Big 12 heavyweights
−Defense managed just 3 sacks in final 4 games
−on the road against a top-10 preseason team
Texas Tech
+Reigning Big 12 champs, first CFP appearance
+five-star WR Hudson, loaded transfer LB corps
+preseason top-10 in multiple national rankings
−Starting QB coming off ACL tear, no live reps
−lost original QB Sorsby to a gambling-related dismissal
Houston walks into this one with the guy who already won them a bowl game. Conner Weigman threw for 2,705 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, capped it with Texas Bowl MVP honors, and told reporters at Big 12 Media Days that this is the healthiest offseason he's had. Texas Tech's answer at quarterback is redshirt sophomore Will Hammond, who's spent the offseason rehabbing a torn ACL and is stepping into the job only because Brendan Sorsby's Red Raiders career blew up in a gambling scandal that got him ruled permanently ineligible in May.
Head coach Joey McGuire said at media days he expects Hammond ready for Week 1 pending sign-off from the medical staff, which tells you Tech is optimistic but not popping champagne yet. It's a real swing factor for a program that's otherwise loaded — five-star receiver Micah Hudson, tight end Terrance Carter Jr., and a linebacker corps beefed up by transfers Trey White, Adam Trick and Austin Romaine that USA Today rated among the best in the country. Houston's got its own question marks on the other side of the ball: the Cougars managed just 3 sacks over their final four games a year ago, and that pass rush needs to show up against a Tech offense with real skill-position talent.
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HOU Houston
TTU Texas Tech
Both programs arrive with legitimate hardware to chase. Texas Tech is the reigning Big 12 champ and made the program's first College Football Playoff appearance, landing preseason top-10 rankings from CBS Sports (No. 9) and The Athletic (No. 10). Houston isn't far behind in the conversation — College Football News has the Cougars pegged for 9-3 and lumps them in with Tech, BYU and Utah as the league's true contenders, helped by a schedule that dodges Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, TCU, Iowa State and Kansas.
Houston Cougars
Sep 12?vs Southern—
Sep 5?vs Oregon State—
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sep 12?@ Oregon State—
Sep 5?vs Abilene Christian—
Recent form.
The receiver matchups are worth circling too. Amare Thomas broke out for Houston last year with 966 receiving yards and multi-touchdown games against West Virginia, Arizona and LSU in the bowl, giving Weigman a legitimate go-to option on the road. Tech counters with Hudson, a five-star who was the headline addition of the offseason — if Hammond's timing is off early in his return from injury, leaning on a receiver who can win one-on-one reps takes pressure off the rust.
Houston Cougars
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Texas Tech Red Raiders
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Houston's got the steadier hand under center and a defense that, sack numbers aside, helped the program to 10 wins and a ranked finish last season. Tech's got the higher ceiling on paper and home field, but this is exactly the kind of early-season spot where a shaky return from a first-year starter can turn a projected rout into a dogfight. Which version of Hammond shows up says a lot about how far this Tech team can actually go.
