Who is favored in Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State Bobcats?

Texas State Bobcats are favored on the moneyline.

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State Bobcats

Sep 26, 2026·5:00 PM CT·San Marcos, TX

By JR·2 min read

UIW(2-1)

TXST(1-2)

AT

5:00 PM CT

TLDR: G.J. Kinne gets his old program on his own field on Saturday, and his Bobcats need an easy day after a September that has cost them 125 points in 3 games. Incarnate Word comes up I-35 from San Antonio as a 2-1 FCS team that can score, and that is the part worth watching.

SAT SEP 26, 5:00 PM CT

Spread

WIN

Total

Incarnate Word

(2-1)

WLWWL

Texas State

(1-2)

WLLWW

Kickoff94°

Incarnate Word, a 2-1 FCS team loaded with Power 4 transfers, visits former coach G.J. Kinne and a 1-2 Texas State team in its first Pac-12 season. The Bobcats' offense woke up in a 49-35 win over North Texas, but their defense has allowed at least 31 points in every game. That is the only real reason to doubt a lopsided board, and a 97-degree forecast adds depth and heat as another factor for the second half.

Incarnate Word

Scored 28 at No. 24 Northern Arizona
Transfers from Ohio State, Texas Tech, Kansas
Veteran QB Emmett Brown, a redshirt grad
Needed OT to beat Houston Christian
Gave up 38 in only real test
FCS depth in a 97-degree game

Texas State

Davian Jackson scored 4 TDs vs North Texas
Offense scored 49 last time out
Kinne knows this opponent's program firsthand
Allowed 31+ points in every game
Lost at home to UTSA
Blown out 59-7 by Texas

The biggest storyline is Texas State's coach. Kinne coached Incarnate Word before he took the San Marcos job, and the 2026 Cardinals built their schedule so their last non-conference game is a trip up to see him. Clint Killough is in his 4th year running UIW now, with new coordinators on both sides of the ball, Justin Bane on offense and Ben Olson on defense. He also has a roster filled out with transfers from Ohio State, Texas Tech and Kansas. This is not the usual FCS team that shows up to collect a check.

Texas State's season has been rough. This is the Bobcats' first year in the Pac-12 after 13 seasons in the Sun Belt. They opened by losing 59-7 to Texas, then lost 31-26 to UTSA at home. They finally got their first win when Davian Jackson scored 4 touchdowns in a 49-35 shootout with North Texas. The offense has found a pulse. The defense has given up at least 31 points in all 3 games.

The board treats this as a mismatch, and on talent it probably is. Still, a 4-touchdown spread only holds up if the Bobcats' defense plays like it hasn't all month. Whether Texas State can hold a lead is a real question going into Saturday, and it matters more than the moneyline.

Incarnate Word's results say it can score but hasn't been dominant. The Cardinals beat Oklahoma Panhandle State 76-14, then went to No. 24 Northern Arizona and scored 28 in a 38-28 loss, which is a respectable road result against a ranked FCS team. Then they needed overtime to get past Houston Christian 30-23 in the Southland opener. Redshirt graduate Emmett Brown runs the offense, and you can see the transfer help in how much they've scored.

Weather matters here. It's a late-afternoon kickoff in San Marcos with the forecast at 97 degrees, cloudy skies and a 10 mph wind. Depth matters in heat like that, and the FBS roster should have more of it in the second half. It is also the kind of day when the starters come out early if Texas State builds a lead, and that decides whether the margin keeps growing or the backups give some of it back.

For Texas State, this is the last game before the Pac-12 schedule starts to count. Kinne needs his defense to finally get stops, and a clean, boring win would help. Incarnate Word needs to keep its offense rolling against a secondary that has been giving up points all month. If the Cardinals make this uncomfortable into the 2nd half, the reunion gets a lot more interesting than the board expects.

Live Odds