TLDR: Indiana comes to Piscataway as the defending national champion and a huge road favorite. Rutgers gets its homecoming crowd, a quarterback who has put up points all month and a defense that has made that pointless.
The defending national champions visit a 1-3 Rutgers team for the Scarlet Knights' homecoming at SHI Stadium. Rutgers has scored at least 21 in every game but has given up 28 or more to all 3 FBS opponents, so the question is whether Lonergan's offense can stay close to an unbeaten Indiana. The board makes the Hoosiers overwhelming road favorites, and the forecast is calm and dry.
The football setup is simple. Curt Cignetti's Hoosiers are in the middle of a title defense, and through 4 games they haven't lost. Rutgers is 1-3 under Greg Schiano, and Dylan Lonergan has started all 4. The most useful thing about the Scarlet Knights so far is that they score. They put up 21 against UMass, 21 at Boston College, 35 against USC and 58 on Howard. Whether that offense can keep up with Indiana is the only question that makes Saturday, October 3 worth watching.
The problem is the other side of those scores. Rutgers gave up 37 to UMass at SHI Stadium, 28 in Chestnut Hill and 42 to USC. Those were the 3 FBS opponents, and the defense got beaten in all 3. The USC loss is the one Rutgers fans can point to, a 7-point game against a good team. The UMass loss at home is the one they'd like to forget. Indiana is a far better team than 2 of those 3 opponents, and a 3-touchdown-plus spread tells you how the market sees it.
For Rutgers, the schedule doesn't ease up after this one. The Indiana game opens a Big Ten stretch that runs through Maryland, Northwestern, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Penn State and Michigan State. A homecoming upset of the champs would change how that whole run looks. A blowout would push Schiano's team to 1-4 with the hard part still ahead.
Weather won't bail anyone out. The forecast for Piscataway is 60 degrees and cloudy, with an 11% chance of rain and a 3 mph breeze. That's about as clean as an October night in Jersey gets, so neither offense has an excuse, and neither does a Rutgers secondary that has been giving up points all month.
If Rutgers makes this interesting, it'll look like the USC game: Lonergan keeping drives alive, the offense matching scores into the second half, and the homecoming crowd staying loud. If Indiana plays like a team defending a title, the Hoosiers will have the starters on the sideline early. The first few Indiana possessions against this Rutgers defense should tell you which game it is.
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights — Defending Champ Indiana Visits Rutgers for Homecoming in Piscataway | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush
