Iowa has its own injury problems, and they're up front. Starting center Cael Winter is out, along with offensive line depth pieces Lucas Allgeyer, Trent Wilson and Cannon Leonard, and running back Kamari Moulton is done for the season with an upper-body injury. That's a lot of reshuffling in front of a quarterback whose shoulder has been on the injury report. The good news for Iowa is in the back end: defensive backs Zach Lutmer and Jaylen Watson and receiver Dayton Howard are all listed probable. Northwestern is still thin in the secondary. Corner J. Fussell is out with no timetable, and safety Jon Jon Stevens Jr. was carted off with an apparent head injury at Oregon. The board moved hard on the Chiles news. Northwestern was favored earlier in the week, and now Iowa is the road favorite.
The Oregon loss was really a story about the red zone. Northwestern scored on its first 4 drives and still lost, because too many of those drives stalled and ended in field goals. Jackson Kleather made 4 of them, including 2 from 49 yards. Griffin Wilde caught 5 balls for 146 yards, and a trick formation sprang him for a 64-yard touchdown. Then Dylan Raiola threw for 336 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the 75-yard strike that put Oregon ahead 34-26 came after the safety had already gone down. Settling for 3 against Oregon gets you beat. Settling for 3 against Iowa usually means a 16-13 game, and with a backup under center, Northwestern may not even get that many chances to settle.
Iowa's season has swung back and forth all year. The Hawkeyes won 20-19 at Michigan and 41-24 at Washington, and they also lost 13-10 at Minnesota and 31-14 at home to Ohio State. The defense showed up every week. The offense didn't. The Wisconsin game was a 30-0 shutout that held the Badgers to 235 yards, and it was Iowa's 5th straight win in that series. The question for this trip is whether Brown's 20-of-24 day was a real step forward or just a good afternoon against a defense that couldn't stop him, especially with a new center snapping to him. Northwestern has been a different team at home: it beat Penn State 34-13, Ball State 45-14 and Rutgers 42-14 at Ryan Field.
The forecast is about 42 degrees and clear in Evanston, with a 5 mph wind. Weather won't decide this one. The matchup will. Northwestern has to win with Marchiol, Kelly's scheme and Wilde, against a defense that just allowed 0 points and without the running threat Chiles gave them. Iowa has to protect Brown behind a patched-up interior line, win with a short field and long drives, then take shots at a secondary that could be missing 2 bodies. One of these teams leaves Ryan Field 4-2 in the Big Ten, and the other falls behind in the conference race.
