Two Big 12 programs walk into Waco this fall for very different reasons — one starting completely over, the other trying to prove last year's promise was real.
Bush’s Picks
ISUBAY
ISUBAY
OverUnder
Best BetBaylor
Baylor's the more finished roster on paper — a returning offensive coordinator, a five-star arm in Lagway, and a massive head start over an Iowa State team that lost almost its entire roster this offseason. That's the case for backing the Bears to win outright. Just don't treat it as automatic: Aranda's teams have found ways to blow winnable games before, and this year's version has a brand-new defensive coordinator installing a scheme from scratch.
Iowa State
+Portal QB Raynor threw for 3,361 yards, 19 TDs
+New coach Rogers has FCS title pedigree
+No 2025 record or expectations to protect
−Lost 23 players, including starting QB, to Penn State
−Only 44 returning players on the roster
−First-year staff at HC, OC, and DC
Baylor
+OC Spavital returning for third season
+Landed five-star transfer arm DJ Lagway
+Aranda retained, offense already Big 12 caliber
−Aranda has 3 losing seasons in last 4 years
−Lagway threw 14 INTs last season, 10 in 3 games
−Brand-new DC installing scheme from scratch
Jaylen Raynor and DJ Lagway will run the two offenses at McLane Stadium, and neither is walking in with much of a track record yet. Raynor arrives after throwing for 3,361 yards and 19 touchdowns at Arkansas State, good enough that new coach Jimmy Rogers named him the frontrunner for the Iowa State job practically the moment he committed. Lagway, the five-star arm Florida let get away, is chasing the ceiling everyone saw in high school instead of the version that threw 14 interceptions last season, 10 of them across just three games.
The bigger story in Ames isn't the quarterback, it's everybody else. Iowa State kept just 44 returning players after Matt Campbell left for the Penn State job and brought 23 Cyclones with him, including former starter Rocco Becht and tight end Ben Brah — meaning Rogers is building a program from scratch with a first-year coordinator on both sides of the ball. Baylor's setup is calmer on paper: Dave Aranda got another year despite three losing seasons in four, and offensive coordinator Jake Spavital is back for a third season running the show.
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ISU Iowa State
BAY Baylor
None of that guarantees anything once the season actually kicks off. Aranda's Bears have looked dangerous and still found ways to lose, and a defense learning a new coordinator's scheme under Joe Klanderman can get exposed against the wrong opponent. Iowa State, for all its roster churn, is playing with house money — there's no 2025 record to protect and no ceiling anyone's expecting them to hit.
Iowa State Cyclones
Oct 30?vs Oklahoma State—
Oct 9?@ BYU—
Oct 2?vs West Virginia—
Sep 25?vs Utah—
Sep 19?vs Bowling Green—
Sep 12?@ Iowa—
Sep 5?vs Southeast Missouri State—
Baylor Bears
Oct 30?@ UCF—
Oct 16?vs TCU—
Oct 2?@ Arizona State—
Sep 25?vs Colorado—
Sep 19?vs Louisiana Tech—
Sep 12?vs Prairie View A&M—
Sep 5?@ Auburn—
Recent form.
Rogers' pitch to Ames has one thing going for it before a single snap: a South Dakota State résumé that includes an FCS national title and a reputation for making short-handed rosters competitive fast. Whether that translates against Big 12 talent in year one is the whole question hanging over this rebuild. Aranda doesn't get that kind of grace period — another underwhelming fall and a program that was supposed to have a rising Big 12 offense starts looking like a coach on his last extension.
Iowa State Cyclones
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Baylor Bears
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
By the time these two meet, both programs will have a full season's worth of tape separating projection from reality. What won't change between now and then: this is a measuring-stick game for two rebuilding timelines running in opposite directions — one betting on a portal quarterback with SEC scars, the other betting on a coach who's never had less talent to work with than everyone around him.
