BYU spent the offseason turning down Penn State and building toward a Playoff bid; Iowa State shows up in Provo having blown up nearly its entire roster and started over.
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ISUBYU
ISUBYU
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Best BetBYU
BYU is the far more stable program walking in here — a returning coach, a title-game starting quarterback, and a defense that's replacing a coordinator, not half its roster. Iowa State is breaking in a new head coach, a new QB, and a defense installing a new front, which is a lot to ask on the road against a Playoff hopeful. Back BYU to win outright.
Iowa State
+New DC Bobbit installs an aggressive four-man front
+QB Raynor arrives with 3,300+ passing yards, 19 TDs
+Rogers has FCS title-winning pedigree as a builder
−Historic turnover: 103 players out, 50 in
−Picked near the Big 12 basement, 5.5-win total
−Brand-new systems on both sides on the road
BYU
+Bachmeier already has a Big 12 title-game start
+LJ Martin returns as reigning Big 12 Offensive POY
+Defense allowed just 19.1 points per game last year
−Lost DC Jay Hill to Michigan this offseason
−New coordinator Poppinga untested in the role
−Blew a 24-10 second-quarter lead to this same team last year before rallying
Jimmy Rogers takes his first Big 12 road trip as a head coach into a building where BYU is treating this season like a Playoff audition. Iowa State's new coach went 15-0 and won an FCS title at South Dakota State in 2023, then went 6-6 in a single year at Washington State — not exactly the continuity Iowa State just gave up when Matt Campbell left for Penn State and took his starting quarterback, Rocco Becht, with him. On the other side, Bear Bachmeier enters year two as a starter already having led BYU to a Big 12 Championship Game as a true freshman, and Kalani Sitake turned down Penn State himself last winter to keep building around him.
BYU is replacing pieces too — coordinator Jay Hill left for Michigan after fielding one of the Big 12's stingiest defenses, and special teams coordinator Kelly Poppinga is stepping up to protect a group that still returns Utah transfer Keanu Tanuvasa up front. Iowa State's overhaul is far more extreme: DC Jesse Bobbit is scrapping Campbell's old 3-4 for a four-man front with a defense mostly built from the 50 transfers who replaced the 103 players who left. That gap in institutional continuity is why BYU is the clear favorite walking into this one.
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ISU Iowa State
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The name to watch for Iowa State is Jaylen Raynor, the Arkansas State transfer Rogers brought in to run the new offense — he threw for over 3,300 yards and 19 touchdowns last season, but he's doing it with almost entirely new weapons around him. BYU counters with LJ Martin, the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year off a 1,305-yard season, giving Bachmeier a proven complement as the Cougars try to push from title-game loser to Playoff team.
Iowa State Cyclones
Oct 2?vs West Virginia—
Sep 25?vs Utah—
Sep 19?vs Bowling Green—
Sep 12?@ Iowa—
Sep 5?vs Southeast Missouri State—
BYU Cougars
Oct 2?@ TCU—
Sep 19?@ Colorado State—
Sep 12?vs Arizona—
Sep 5?vs Utah Tech—
Recent form.
This is also a rematch with an edge. BYU's win over Iowa State last season was its first ever in the series, and it didn't come easy — the Cougars trailed 24-10 in the second quarter before erupting for a 31-3 finishing kick, the kind of collapse Iowa State can't afford again against a program with far more continuity than it has right now. Both teams also enter as the last two Pop-Tarts Bowl champions, which says plenty about where each program has trended the last two years — one up, one about to find out.
Iowa State Cyclones
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
BYU Cougars
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Friday night in Provo, in front of an ESPN audience, is a fitting proving ground: Rogers gets an early look at how fast his rebuild can compete, and Sitake's team gets a measuring-stick reminder of how far it's come.
