Iowa State and UCF both blew up their rosters this offseason, and by the time they meet in late November, we'll finally know which rebuild actually stuck.
Bush’s Picks
ISUUCF
ISUUCF
OverUnder
Best BetIowa State
Iowa State enters with the sturdier recent baseline — an 8-4 finish last year against UCF's 5-7, bowl-less campaign — and a transfer quarterback with real starting experience gives the Cyclones a head start on offensive continuity. UCF's rebuild carries more variance given the sheer size of its roster turnover, including both starting edge rushers walking out the door. Back Iowa State here as the side with fewer unknowns heading into a late-season Big 12 matchup.
Iowa State
+8-4 finish in 2025, 5-0 to start the year
+transfer QB Raynor brings 3 years starting experience
+won the only previous meeting with UCF, 2024
−Matt Campbell left for Penn State, new staff installed
−nation-leading 51 outgoing transfers gutted the roster
−2026 recruiting class collapsed from 22 commits to 6
UCF
+landed CFP-experienced transfer QB Alonza Barnett III
+brought in a top-20-year QB recruit as depth
+31 incoming transfers to rebuild the roster
−5-7 finish, missed a bowl for 2nd straight year
−34 players hit the portal, both starting edges gone
Iowa State walks into this one under a new coach for the first time in a decade. Jimmy Rogers takes over after Matt Campbell bolted for Penn State, and while the departure gutted the Cyclones' 2026 recruiting class, Rogers brought roughly 15 of his own transfers from Washington State to soften the landing. The presumptive answer at quarterback is Jaylen Raynor, a transfer with three years of starting snaps at Arkansas State and Oklahoma State — though nothing is locked in this early, and depth charts have a way of shifting between July and a Week 12 kickoff.
UCF's version of upheaval looks different but is arguably just as steep. Scott Frost is back for year two of his second stint in Orlando, coming off a 5-7 finish that missed a bowl for the second straight year. The Knights lost 34 players to the transfer portal — among the larger portal exoduses in the country — including both starting EDGE rushers. Alonza Barnett III, a transfer with CFP-level experience at James Madison, is the presumptive answer under center, with a highly touted true freshman waiting in the wings if things go sideways.
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ISU Iowa State
UCF UCF
Neither program shows up in the early Big 12 preseason pecking order — that conversation runs through Texas Tech, BYU and Utah — which makes this feel more like a measuring-stick game between two teams trying to prove they belong in the middle class rather than a marquee showcase. That's not nothing, though: these two have only played once, with Iowa State escaping with a 38-35 win back in 2024, so there's an actual rivalry thread here even if the names on both rosters look completely different this time around.
Iowa State Cyclones
Nov 13?vs Cincinnati—
Nov 6?@ Baylor—
Oct 30?vs Oklahoma State—
Oct 9?@ BYU—
Oct 2?vs West Virginia—
Sep 25?vs Utah—
Sep 19?vs Bowling Green—
Sep 12?@ Iowa—
Sep 5?vs Southeast Missouri State—
UCF Knights
Nov 13?vs Arizona State—
Nov 6?@ Kansas—
Oct 30?vs Baylor—
Oct 9?@ Oklahoma State—
Oct 2?@ Houston—
Sep 25?vs TCU—
Sep 19?vs Georgia State—
Sep 12?@ Pittsburgh—
Sep 3?vs Bethune-Cookman—
Recent form.
Iowa State's calling card the last couple seasons has been Campbell-era defense and physicality, and Rogers inherits a program that still declined a bowl bid this past December over roster health concerns — a signal that depth was already thin before 51 players hit the portal. UCF's issue is more about proving anything carries over: Frost's first year back produced a 2-7 conference mark and a losing skid to close the season, and a defensive line rebuilt almost entirely through the portal is the single biggest swing factor for how this defense holds up by November.
Iowa State Cyclones
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
UCF Knights
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
This is a game that'll be shaped less by star power and more by which staff gets its new pieces playing as a unit first. Iowa State's got the sturdier recent track record — an 8-4 finish in 2025 with continuity at coordinator-adjacent pieces even amid the head coaching change — while UCF is still searching for its first sign that the Frost reunion tour is trending upward. Circle late November as the point where both stories should be a lot clearer than they are today.
