James Madison has its own question mark. Receiver Z. Collins left the Georgia State game with a shoulder injury and is questionable. That matters less for a team scoring like this one, but this is the first road trip since a 27-24 escape at Georgia Southern, which is the only time in this 5-game run the Dukes were really pushed. Both teams are on short weeks. App State played its Coastal game a day earlier and gets the extra day of rest and preparation, for whatever that's worth in a 4-day turnaround.
There is one common opponent, and it says a lot. James Madison went to Old Dominion and won 46-20. App State hosted Old Dominion and lost 10-3, in a game where the offense couldn't get going at all. That 3-point game is the low point of a season that otherwise looks like a decent Sun Belt team winning close games: 27-24 at East Carolina, 26-21 over Charlotte, 35-32 at Coastal. App State has played 1-score games all year, and James Madison has mostly blown teams out.
So it comes down to whether App State's run game can shorten this game. The forecast in Boone is clear, 52 degrees, with 6 mph wind and no rain, so nothing about the weather helps either offense or slows one down. App State's best path is the same one it took in the second half at Coastal: Lewis and the quarterback running behind the line, long drives, and keeping Coleman off the field. James Madison's path is to score early and make App State throw, and whoever is under center for the Mountaineers hasn't shown they can carry the passing game for 4 quarters yet. The Thursday night ESPNU slot means plenty of people will see which one happens.