James Madison shows up with a Sun Belt title and a CFP appearance on the resume. UConn shows up with basically a new team.
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JMUCONN
JMUCONN
OverUnder
Best BetJames Madison
James Madison is the far more proven program walking in here, fresh off a Sun Belt title and a CFP berth, and that continuity edge outweighs UConn's home game. UConn is still sorting out its starting quarterback among three unproven options, which is a shaky spot to be in against a team that just won a conference championship. Back the Dukes to win this one outright.
James Madison
+Reigning Sun Belt champs, first CFP berth in school history
+Eight players tabbed Preseason All-Sun Belt
+Added Memphis transfer QB Arrington Maiden
−Lost Sun Belt Player of the Year Alonza Barnett III to UCF
−Lost two starting corners to the portal
−New head coach Napier still installing his system
UConn
+Favorable home schedule with signature-win chances
+Imported 8 former Toledo starters, including LB K'Von Sherman
+Fresh start under new staff with real transfer investment
−Only 5 returning starters from last season
−Unsettled 3-way quarterback competition
−SP+ projects 107th nationally, 5.2 wins average
This is a program in flux facing a program still finding its footing after its own turnover. UConn fired up a total teardown this offseason under first-year coach Jason Candle, who brought in 64 new players — 57 of them transfers — after Jim Mora bolted for Colorado State and took 44 Huskies with him. Three unproven names are fighting for the starting quarterback job in Storrs, and none of them have taken a college snap that matters yet. James Madison has its own transition to manage: Bob Chesney, who built the Dukes into a Sun Belt champion, left for UCLA, and Billy Napier — the former Florida head coach — is now running the show in Harrisonburg.
Napier isn't walking into a finished product, either. JMU lost its Sun Belt Player of the Year, quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who threw for 2,806 yards and ran for 589 more before bolting to UCF, and two starting corners in Justin Eaglin and DJ Barksdale left for Colorado and UCLA. The Dukes brought in Memphis transfer Arrington Maiden to try to replace Barnett's production, which means both teams are effectively breaking in new quarterbacks under new coaching staffs by the time this one kicks off.
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CONN UConn
Roster continuity is the whole story here, and it tilts hard toward James Madison even accounting for the losses. Eight Dukes were already tabbed for the Preseason All-Sun Belt team, which says a lot about how much talent survived the coaching change compared to what UConn is working with.
UConn isn't hopeless, though. Candle didn't just backfill with bodies — eight former Toledo starters followed him to Storrs, including linebacker K'Von Sherman, who racked up 17 tackles for loss last season, and defensive end Anas Luqman. If the Huskies are going to make this competitive, it starts with a defense that has some proven pieces even if the rest of the roster is a question mark.
James Madison Dukes
Nov 5?@ Southern Miss—
Oct 29?vs Troy—
Oct 22?@ App State—
Oct 16?vs Georgia State—
Oct 9?@ Georgia Southern—
Oct 2?vs Marshall—
Sep 25?@ Old Dominion—
Sep 19?@ San Diego State—
Sep 12?vs Wagner—
Sep 5?vs Liberty—
UConn Huskies
Nov 7?vs North Carolina—
Oct 31?@ Air Force—
Oct 23?vs Massachusetts—
Oct 9?@ Temple—
Oct 3?vs Syracuse—
Sep 25?@ Miami (OH)—
Sep 19?@ Southern Miss—
Sep 12?vs Maryland—
Sep 5?vs Lafayette—
Recent form.
The schedule maker actually did UConn a favor by keeping this one at home — the Huskies host Maryland, Syracuse, North Carolina and Old Dominion this season too, part of what analysts have called a slate full of potential signature wins if the defense holds up early. But SP+ still projects UConn at 107th nationally with an average of 5.2 wins, which tells you how far the rebuild has to go before those signature wins actually show up on the schedule.
James Madison Dukes
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Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
UConn Huskies
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
James Madison, meanwhile, is coming off the best season in program history — a 12-2 finish, its first Sun Belt crown, and the program's first-ever trip to the College Football Playoff before falling to Oregon in the first round. That's the standard Napier inherits, and even with Barnett gone, a roster that produced eight preseason all-conference honorees gives him a real head start most first-year coaches don't get.
