The schedules don't tell you much. Kansas scored 51 on Long Island and 55 on Middle Tennessee, then scored 24 or fewer in all 3 losses to Missouri, Arizona State and Utah. K-State ran up 71 on Nicholls and handled Washington State and Tulane at home. Then it lost 31-26 at Cincinnati and got pushed around 35-16 by No. 22 Houston in its own Big 12 home opener. Neither team has beaten a real conference opponent yet.
The Houston loss should worry Manhattan. Patrick Overmyer caught 4 touchdown passes, tying an FBS record for a tight end, and Houston controlled the game on the ground. A K-State defense that couldn't cover a tight end or hold up against the run now faces a Kansas team that would love to throw the ball over the top with Marshall.
Long Island University51-6
Nicholls71-3Kansas also gets its best receiving tight end back in no shape to help. Without Moses and with the running backs gone, the Jayhawks have to win this game through the air. Marshall's 333 yards at Utah show that's possible. His 19 completions on 37 attempts show how hard it is to keep up that efficiency. K-State has the deeper roster and home field. Whether its run defense can recover from the Houston game will decide how comfortable this one gets.
The early forecast for Saturday, October 17 in Manhattan calls for clear skies, temperatures in the high 30s and wind around 13 mph. That will change between now and kickoff, but cold with a stiff breeze would make it harder for Marshall to keep stretching the field. The board has K-State as a comfortable home favorite. Its last 2 games say it hasn't earned that yet against Big 12 opponents, and Kansas has spent 3 weeks scoring in the 20s against them.