Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs

Oct 31, 20262:30 PM CTFS1Fort Worth, TX
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Kansas and TCU are both 3-4, both 1-3 in the Big 12, and both just played one-score games on Homecoming that ended in the final minute. One of them leaves Fort Worth on Halloween with a pulse, and the other leaves needing to win out.

SAT 10/31, 2:30 PM CT · Week 9FS1
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Kickoff 70°

Kansas and TCU are mirror images at 3-4 and 1-3 in the Big 12, and both just played Homecoming games decided in the final minute. TCU has the healthier roster and Jaden Craig's big passing numbers but keeps losing close games, while Kansas is winning with backup QB Isaiah Marshall despite losing 3 running backs for the season. The deciding question is whether TCU's yardage advantage finally becomes points against a Kansas defense that has struggled on the road.

Kansas Jayhawks
  • Marshall accounted for 3 TDs vs Baylor, won it late
  • Special teams delivered the game-saving FG block
  • 3 running backs out for the season
  • Allowed 41 and 35 in last 2 road games
  • Starting QB Ballard out, no timetable
TCU Horned Frogs
  • Craig threw for 372 vs West Virginia
  • Outgained WVU 484-265; offense moves the ball
  • Beat common opponent Baylor 17-6 on the road
  • 20 or fewer points in all 3 latest losses
  • Craig's late sack-fumble cost them the WVU game
  • LB M. Short out, no timetable

This one comes down to the quarterbacks. Isaiah Marshall gave Kansas the 25-24 win over Baylor, throwing for 212 yards and 2 touchdowns and running for 31 more, including the 15-yard touchdown run with 1:13 left that won it. Jaden Craig gave TCU everything but the result against West Virginia: 372 passing yards, a touchdown through the air and another on the ground. Then he fumbled on a sack inside the red zone in the final minute, and a 24-20 loss went in the books.

Kansas is getting there with a short roster. Starting QB C. Ballard is out with a shoulder injury and no timetable, which is why Marshall is the one running the offense. The backfield is worse off: K. Amachree, Y. Willis and J. Thurman are all listed out for the season. TCU's report has one name on it, linebacker M. Short, out with an undisclosed injury and no timetable. On paper, the Frogs have the healthier roster by a lot.

The most useful number from TCU's Saturday is the yardage. The Frogs outgained West Virginia 484-265 and still lost, after Craig opened by completing his first 10 passes. That's the TCU season in short: an offense that moves the ball and a scoreboard that doesn't show it. The Frogs lost 13-21 at UCF and 10-17 to BYU at home, and in all 3 of their latest losses they scored 20 points or fewer.

10/24WvsBaylor25-24
10/17L@Kansas State24-35
10/11L@6Utah24-41
10/03WvsMiddle Tennessee55-0
09/19LvsArizona State17-24
10/24LvsWest Virginia20-24
10/17W@Baylor17-6
10/03Lvs8BYU10-17
09/26L@UCF13-21
09/20WvsArkansas State31-7

Kansas has been all over the place. The Jayhawks put up 55 on Middle Tennessee, then gave up 41 at Utah and 35 at Kansas State in back-to-back road losses. Both of those defensive collapses came away from Lawrence, and this is another road game. The Baylor win took a Blake Herold block of a 45-yard field goal try with 22 seconds left, so it was about as close as a game gets. A late escape like that says plenty about this team's toughness but not much about its margin for error.

There's a common opponent, though it doesn't settle much. TCU won 17-6 at Baylor, and Kansas edged the Bears by 1 at home. The early forecast for Fort Worth calls for about 80 degrees, cloudy skies and winds near 15 mph. That's a week-old forecast, but if the wind holds it matters for an offense built around Craig's arm. It also matters for a game that could well come down to one kick.

Kansas vs. TCU: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 31) — Kansas, TCU Meet in Fort Worth With Bowl Math Getting Tight