Two teams trying to prove their offseason overhauls actually worked collide in Boulder on Halloween weekend, and neither one has room left for excuses.
Bush’s Picks
KSUCOLO
KSUCOLO
OverUnder
Best BetKansas State
Kansas State's case for the moneyline starts and ends with continuity — Avery Johnson has been the guy for a full season already, while Colorado is trusting a redshirt freshman making his first extended run as a starter. Until Julian Lewis proves it in real Big 12 snaps, backing the more experienced quarterback and the coach who already knows him is the safer outright play.
Kansas State
+Avery Johnson returns after 2,385 pass yards, 18 total TDs
+Collin Klein already coached Johnson as an assistant
+Transfer class ranked 45th, headlined by a Freshman DPOY
−Lost both starting offensive tackles to Indiana
−First-year head coach in his own program
−Preseason projected as only middle-of-pack Big 12 team
Colorado
+66 new players restock a roster that finished 3-9
+New OC Brennan Marion brings a fresh offensive system
+Could field 11 new defensive starters after a historically bad unit
−Finished 121st nationally in total defense last season
−Redshirt freshman Julian Lewis has started just 2 college games
−Lost 8 of final 9 games in some form a year ago
Kansas State's pitch is simple: keep the quarterback, change the coach. Avery Johnson is back after throwing for 2,385 yards with 18 touchdowns and adding 8 more scores on the ground in 2025, and now he's got Collin Klein — a K-State legend who spent the last stretch calling plays at Texas A&M — running the show. Colorado's pitch is the opposite: change basically everyone. The Buffs bring back only one meaningful piece of last year's young core, redshirt freshman Julian Lewis, and hand him the offense under new coordinator Brennan Marion after firing Pat Shurmur this offseason.
Johnson's experience is the separator here. He's now run an offense for multiple seasons, has a 900-yard rusher in Joe Jackson to lean on, and doesn't have to learn a new playbook from scratch — Klein already coached him as an assistant before taking over the program. Lewis, by contrast, started just 2 games last season, throwing for 589 yards with 4 touchdowns and zero picks in limited action. Zero interceptions is a nice signal, but it's also a tiny sample against a defense that lost 8 of its final 9 games in some form last year.
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KSU Kansas State
COLO Colorado
Where Colorado has a real case is roster infusion. Deion Sanders brought in 66 new players, restocking the backfield with Damian Henderson II, Richard Young and Jaquail Smith and adding receivers like DeAndre Moore Jr. and Danny Scudero. The defense could roll out 11 new starters, which after finishing 121st nationally last season isn't exactly a bad thing. Sanders wasn't shy about it at Big 12 Media Days, saying flatly, "We better win... We're going to win."
Kansas State Wildcats
Oct 23?@ Arizona State—
Oct 16?vs Kansas—
Oct 9?vs Houston—
Sep 25?@ Cincinnati—
Sep 19?vs Tulane—
Sep 12?vs Washington State—
Sep 5?vs Nicholls—
Colorado Buffaloes
Oct 23?@ Oklahoma State—
Oct 16?vs Utah—
Oct 2?vs Texas Tech—
Sep 25?@ Baylor—
Sep 19?@ Northwestern—
Sep 12?vs Weber State—
Sep 3?@ Georgia Tech—
Recent form.
Kansas State isn't walking in spotless, either. The Wildcats lost both starting tackles, Tobi Osunsanmi and Chiddi Obiazor, to Indiana in the transfer portal, which puts real pressure on a retooled offensive line to protect Johnson and open lanes for Jackson. Klein did counter by landing a transfer class that ranked 45th nationally, headlined by Wendell Gregory, last season's Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, giving the defense a boost even as the offensive front rebuilds on the fly.
Kansas State Wildcats
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Colorado Buffaloes
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
By the time this one kicks off in Boulder, both programs will have a couple months of Big 12 play to sort out who they actually are. K-State was pegged as a middle-of-the-pack team preseason, 7-5 with a shot to be the league's surprise if Johnson and Klein click the way people expect. Colorado is chasing anything better than the 3-9 disaster that ended last year. That gap in experience and continuity is the whole story of this matchup heading into fall camp.
