Kansas State rolls into Ames with a returning starting quarterback and a bowl memory to lean on, while Iowa State is still finding its footing in a rebuild that started from absolute zero.
Bush’s Picks
KSUISU
KSUISU
OverUnder
Best BetKansas State
Kansas State brings back its starting quarterback and a staff with real continuity, while Iowa State is field-testing a roster with zero returning starters. That gap in experience is the whole ballgame here, and it's why the Wildcats are the side to trust to just win outright.
Kansas State
+Avery Johnson returning at QB, 2,385 yards, 18 TD in 2025
+Rate Bowl comeback showed late-game resilience
+Favorable 2026 schedule, projected around 8-4
−First-year head coach Collin Klein still installing systems
−Finished just 6-6 in 2025
−Retooled roster with real transfer turnover
Iowa State
+Jimmy Rogers won an FCS title at South Dakota State (15-0)
+Brought in notable transfer influx to rebuild depth
+Home game late in the year at Jack Trice
−Zero returning starters after Matt Campbell's exodus to Penn State
−50-plus players left via the transfer portal
−Predicted to finish last in the Big 12
Avery Johnson is back under center for the Wildcats after a 2025 season that ended with 2,385 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions, plus 477 yards and eight scores on the ground. He capped it with a 25th touchdown of the year in a comeback Rate Bowl win over Rutgers, erasing the largest bowl deficit in school history. First-year head coach Collin Klein, a K-State alum, built his staff around that continuity, bringing in Sean Gleeson to call plays and Jordan Peterson to run the defense.
Iowa State is playing a completely different game this year. Matt Campbell left for Penn State and took most of his staff and eligible roster with him, and more than 50 players hit the transfer portal on the way out. New head coach Jimmy Rogers, who went 15-0 and won an FCS title at South Dakota State before a 6-6 season at Washington State, is rebuilding with zero returning starters and a roster leaning on FCS transfers to fill gaps.
Show fees
11:00 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
KSU Kansas State
ISU Iowa State
The schedule gave Rogers a small mercy early — Iowa State doesn't leave the state until mid-October — but by late November this is a young, unproven roster facing a veteran K-State group that knows how to win close games. Preseason forecasts have the Cyclones picked to finish dead last in the Big 12, with zero players making the preseason all-conference teams, while K-State projects closer to the middle of the pack with a favorable slate.
Kansas State Wildcats
Nov 20?vs Arizona—
Nov 13?@ TCU—
Nov 6?vs Oklahoma State—
Oct 30?@ Colorado—
Oct 16?vs Kansas—
Oct 9?vs Houston—
Sep 25?@ Cincinnati—
Sep 19?vs Tulane—
Sep 12?vs Washington State—
Sep 5?vs Nicholls—
Iowa State Cyclones
Nov 20?@ UCF—
Nov 13?vs Cincinnati—
Nov 6?@ Baylor—
Oct 30?vs Oklahoma State—
Oct 9?@ BYU—
Oct 2?vs West Virginia—
Sep 25?vs Utah—
Sep 19?vs Bowling Green—
Sep 12?@ Iowa—
Sep 5?vs Southeast Missouri State—
Recent form.
K-State's floor is a 6-6 team that found a way to win when it mattered, and Johnson's return gives Klein a proven engine even in year one of a new staff. Iowa State's ceiling right now is just competitive snaps — real reps for a roster that's still learning each other's names, let alone a Big 12 opponent's tendencies.
Kansas State Wildcats
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Iowa State Cyclones
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
By the time Friday, November 27 rolls around, this should read like a program with a plan against a program still building one. Ames crowds can be a factor late in the year, but crowd noise doesn't replace experience at quarterback or continuity on the depth chart — and right now Kansas State has both.
