The Liberty loss is what makes the Owls hard to read. Before it, Kennesaw State had lost 3 straight by 3 points or less: 14-17 at Arkansas State, 26-27 at home against Jacksonville State and 21-24 at Missouri State. The school's notes said no FBS team had more narrow losses this season, and the defense was 1st in CUSA in turnovers gained. Then a team that had beaten Liberty 3 straight times, including a double-overtime win in 2025 that sent it to the CUSA title game, scored 6 points at home and lost by 28.
Middle Tennessee's 4-3 record has a big hole in it. The Blue Raiders lost 55-0 at Kansas, and that score belongs in any honest read of this team. They have also won their last 2, both by exactly 3: 33-30 over Delaware at home and 26-23 at FIU. That's a team winning close games, not running people over, which is the same coin-flip territory where Kennesaw State keeps coming up short.
There's a common opponent too. Both teams played Jacksonville State. The Owls lost to the Gamecocks by 1 at home. Middle Tennessee lost there by 10 and scored 13 points. That's 1 data point and nothing more, but it does suggest the Owls are better than 1-6. They still have to show they can win a close one before anyone treats them that way.
The forecast in Murfreesboro is about as easy as football weather gets: 66 degrees, clear skies and almost no wind. Nothing outside will get in the way of the kicking game or Collins throwing. This one should be decided by whether Brown can run on the Owls' front and whether Kennesaw State can hold on to a lead late.