The schedules look a lot alike. Both teams have 1 win, and both of those were blowouts of an outmatched opponent: Kennesaw State beat West Georgia 47-0 and Missouri State beat Lindenwood 48-14. Both got crushed by an SEC team, the Owls 42-9 at Tennessee and the Bears 50-0 at Texas A&M. Leave out the mismatches and the rest is the real picture: the Owls lost to Georgia State, Arkansas State and Jacksonville State, and the Bears lost to Marshall, SMU and WKU.
West Georgia47-0
Lindenwood48-14
The difference is in how close those games were. Kennesaw State has lost by 3 at Arkansas State and by 1 to Jacksonville State, so the Owls have been 1 stop away from .500 in conference play. Missouri State's 3-game slide has gone 6 points to Marshall, 10 at SMU, then 21 at WKU, and the margins are getting bigger. The scoring runs the other way. The Bears have scored 24, 24 and 13 in their 3 losses. The Owls have scored 17, 9, 14 and 26 in their 4. Kennesaw State usually keeps games close, and Missouri State has usually put up more points.
Home field should matter here. Missouri State's 2 home games at Plaster Stadium were the Lindenwood blowout and a 6-point loss to Marshall, while all 3 of the Owls' road games have been losses. The early forecast for Springfield is 76 degrees with drizzle, a 32% chance of rain and light wind. It's worth checking again closer to kickoff, because rain would favour the team that's been winning close games over the team that needs to score.
This isn't a game neutral fans will circle. It does matter for both teams, though. A win gets either one back to .500 in Conference USA with most of the league schedule still to play. A loss leaves that team 0-2 with a 5-game or 4-game losing streak and half a season left.