Missouri State pulled off a last-second stunner against Liberty a year ago, and the rematch closes out the regular season with both programs trying to prove last year wasn't a fluke.
Bush’s Picks
LIBMOST
LIBMOST
OverUnder
Best BetMissouri State
Missouri State gets the nod here off the strength of what they built in year one, even accounting for the coaching change. Liberty is the program still searching for its footing after a losing season, and until the Flames show it on the field, backing the team coming off a winning campaign at home is the safer read.
Liberty
+2023 CUSA champs, Fiesta Bowl pedigree still in the building
+Chadwell back for 4th season, knows the roster
−Coming off first losing season in 20 years
−Lost the only meeting with Missouri State to date
Missouri State
+7-6 debut CUSA season, surprise bowl bid
+Beat Liberty in their first-ever meeting
−First-time head coach Casey Woods replacing Ryan Beard
−Program still new to FBS-level competition
There's no probable-pitcher card to build around here, just two Conference USA programs staring at very different offseasons. Liberty is trying to climb back after a 4-8 finish in 2025 snapped two decades of winning football, while Missouri State is walking into year one under a brand-new head coach after the guy who got them to a bowl in his first FBS season bolted for Coastal Carolina.
Casey Woods, plucked from SMU's offensive staff, takes over a Missouri State program that overachieved last fall — a 7-6 finish and a surprise bid to the inaugural Xbox Bowl despite transition rules that normally would've kept them out. That's the version of the Bears Liberty will see on Nov. 21, 2026, except run by a first-time head coach trying to keep the machine running without the guy who built it.
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LIB Liberty
MOST Missouri State
Liberty's side of this is a rebuild job for Jamey Chadwell, who's back for a 4th season after the program cratered from a 13-1 CUSA title and Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2023 to a losing record just two years later. Whatever line the market lands on here, it's pricing a Liberty team trying to prove 2025 was the aberration against a Missouri State team trying to prove 2025 wasn't a fluke.
Liberty Flames
Nov 21?vs Western Kentucky—
Nov 14?vs Middle Tennessee—
Nov 7?@ New Mexico State—
Oct 31?vs Florida International—
Oct 22?@ Kennesaw State—
Oct 8?vs Sam Houston—
Oct 2?@ Delaware—
Sep 24?@ Coastal Carolina—
Sep 19?vs Ball State—
Sep 12?vs Gardner-Webb—
Sep 5?@ James Madison—
Missouri State Bears
Nov 21?@ Jacksonville State—
Nov 14?vs New Mexico State—
Nov 7?@ Florida International—
Oct 27?vs Sam Houston—
Oct 20?@ Delaware—
Oct 14?vs Kennesaw State—
Oct 8?@ Western Kentucky—
Sep 25?@ SMU—
Sep 19?vs Marshall—
Sep 12?vs Lindenwood—
Sep 5?@ Texas A&M—
Recent form.
The head-to-head history is short but pointed: these two only met for the first time last November, and Missouri State won it late — a Jacob Clark touchdown pass with 27 seconds left flipped a game Liberty looked to have in hand. That kind of finish tends to stick with a rebuilding program, and Chadwell's group will have circled this one since the schedule dropped.
Whether either team is playing for anything more than pride and bowl math by late November remains to be seen this far out — both are penciled in as regular-season finales ahead of the Dec. 4 CUSA Championship Game, so depending on how the fall breaks, this could double as playoff seeding or a get-right game for two teams that missed the mark. Either way, expect Robert W. Plaster Stadium to be loud for a program still riding the high of last year's breakthrough.
