Louisiana arrives at 4-1, and its only loss looks like the kind of game a Group of 5 team survives. The Cajuns lost 49-30 at USC, which is ugly on defense but still 30 points on the road against a Power 4 team. Outside that game, the defense has done its job. Lamar scored 7, UAB scored 14 and Charlotte scored 7, the last 2 in wins of 21-14 and 34-7.
Louisiana Tech's season is harder to read. The Bulldogs put up 80 points on Northwestern State, which tells you little. Then they had a rough September stretch on the road, losing 45-14 at LSU and 36-19 at Baylor. The Army win at home is the only result where you see what they look like against a team at their level, and that game came down to the final possession.
The injury report is worth watching all week. Louisiana listed tight end J. Birdlow as out with an undisclosed injury for Arkansas State, and receiver S. Sampson Jr. has been questionable with a knee injury since late August. Neither has an update for this trip yet. For Louisiana Tech, the main question is still Baker's hand and whether he's anywhere close to returning. Until he is, the offense belongs to Kukuk.
The early forecast for Ruston calls for 69 degrees and light drizzle, with about a 28 percent chance of rain and 9 mph wind. It's a week out, so take it loosely. If it holds, it's a soggy October night in north Louisiana, and the game probably goes to whichever team runs it better. Louisiana has kept 3 of its 4 listed opponents to 14 points or fewer. Louisiana Tech just gave up a 158-yard rushing day to Army. That matchup is where this game will likely be decided.