Here's what Louisiana looks like right now: run the ball, hand it to the defense, repeat. Troy came into Lafayette averaging around 28 points a game and left with 6 points and a season-low 267 yards. Michael Desormeaux called his defense "the catalyst in the first half" and said that "when this group has a clear goal, I think we're capable of being pretty good." Linebacker Jake St. Andre led the team with 8 tackles, Brent Gordon Jr. broke up 2 passes, and Maurion Eleam got a sack.
These two have played 2 of the same opponents this season, and Louisiana did better against both. Against Troy, the Cajuns won 33-6 while Southern Miss gave up 55 in a 21-point loss. Against Arkansas State, Louisiana won 23-20 while Southern Miss lost 23-13. Southern Miss hasn't won since getting blown out by Auburn and UConn in September, and the closest it has come in that stretch is a 3-point loss at Tulane. The Golden Eagles can get within a score of a decent team, but they haven't been able to finish one off.
Louisiana's weak spot is the passing game. A 70-yard passing day was enough against Troy, but the Cajuns lost a 32-31 shootout at Louisiana Tech, and the last time Winfield had to throw to keep up, they came up 1 point short. If Southern Miss can load up against the run and win on early downs, the Cajuns will have to throw more than they'd like. Forecast for Hattiesburg is 80 degrees, partly cloudy, with an 8 mph breeze, so the weather shouldn't help or hurt either offense.
For Southern Miss, this is a home game against a 5-2 team at 2-1 in the conference, and the Golden Eagles are 0-2 in league play. To pull it off, Lyddy has to protect the ball and the defense has to stop a run game that just went for 243 yards. Neither of those has happened much lately.