Louisiana has lived in close games too. Its last 5 games include a 23-20 win over Arkansas State, a 32-31 loss at Louisiana Tech, a 35-31 loss at Southern Miss and a 28-26 home win over South Alabama. The only easy one was a 33-6 win over Troy. The Cajuns can score, with at least 28 points in 4 of those 5 games. They also gave up 26 or more in 3 of them.
The common opponents tell the clearest story. Both teams played Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Troy, Arkansas State and South Alabama in this stretch. Louisiana lost to Tech by 1, and Monroe lost to them 24-0. Louisiana beat South Alabama, while Monroe gave up 52 to the Jaguars. Louisiana beat Troy by 27, and Monroe beat them by 7. Every comparison favors the Cajuns, though the Warhawks have played better since that shutout loss to Tech.
The early forecast for Monroe calls for clouds, temperatures in the high 40s and 15 mph wind. That would suit a Warhawks offense that barely threw against Arkansas State and works better when the game is short. Forecasts can change over 5 days. If it holds, Louisiana's offense may have to win in tougher conditions than it has seen lately.
The question is simple: can Monroe keep Louisiana's offense on the sideline? Carlisle's running game controlled the clock at Arkansas State and made the Red Wolves play from behind. If Louisiana's defense lets that happen again, this becomes another one-score game decided late, the kind of finish the Cajuns have been playing all season. If Louisiana scores early and forces Monroe to throw, a quarterback who attempted only 4 passes last week will have to carry the offense through the air.
