Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack

Oct 3, 20262:30 PM CTRaleigh, NC
By JR·2 min read

TLDR: Louisville and NC State both head into October carrying a loss they should have won, or at least could have. One of them leaves Raleigh on Saturday, October 3 with its ACC season back on track, and the other has a long week ahead.

Week 5 · SAT OCT 3, 2:30 PM CT
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Kickoff78°12 mph

Louisville visits NC State with Lincoln Kienholz's hot start at quarterback up against CJ Bailey and a Wolfpack offense that just put 41 on Appalachian State. The Cardinals are coming off a 30-27 loss to Wake Forest, and NC State is still looking for its first ACC win after a 34-8 loss at Virginia. Neither defense has been reliable, so this one likely goes to whichever quarterback blinks last. The board has Louisville as the road favorite.

Louisville Cardinals
  • Kienholz threw for 300+ in each of first 2 starts
  • Passing game faces a defense allowing 31+ lately
  • Coming off a 30-27 loss to Wake Forest
  • Road trip into Carter-Finley against a scoring offense
NC State Wolfpack
  • Bailey's offense scored 31 and 41 in last 2 FBS games
  • Just beat a 3-0 App State team at home
  • Allowed 35 to Vanderbilt, 31 to App State
  • Lost ACC opener at Virginia 34-8

The quarterbacks are the story here. Lincoln Kienholz became the first Louisville quarterback to throw for 300 yards in each of his first 2 games, and he did it with barely any wasted throws: 16-of-21 for 332 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 59-13 home-opener rout of Villanova. On the other side, CJ Bailey runs an NC State offense that has scored 31 and 41 in its last 2 games against FBS opponents. Neither defense has given much reason to think it can slow the other quarterback down for 4 quarters.

Both teams just had a rough week. Louisville dropped a 30-27 decision to Wake Forest, and the Cardinals are unranked in this week's AP poll. NC State's recent weeks were stranger. The Wolfpack lost 35-31 at Vanderbilt on a fumble recovered in the end zone, while they were leading and had the ball with seconds left. Then they bounced back by beating a 3-0 Appalachian State team 41-31 in Raleigh. The board has Louisville as a road favorite, which says the market is putting more stock in the Cardinals' ceiling than in last week's result.

The Wolfpack's season doesn't have a clear shape yet. They opened ACC play by getting run off the field at Virginia, 34-8, then hung 73 on Richmond, which shows only that they can beat an FCS team. The Vanderbilt and App State games are the real measure: an offense that can move the ball on anyone and a defense that has allowed 31 or more in both. With 0 conference wins, Dave Doeren's team can't afford another ACC loss at home.

09/26LvsWake Forest27-30
09/19Wvs#21 SMU41-31
09/11WvsVillanova59-13
09/06L@#9 Ole Miss38-41
09/26WvsApp State41-31
09/19L@Vanderbilt31-35
09/11WvsRichmond73-0
08/29L@Virginia8-34

For Louisville, this is a test of whether the Wake Forest game was a blip or a warning. An offense that went over 300 passing yards in each of Kienholz's first 2 starts shouldn't lose a 3-point game to Wake, and the Cardinals' first road trip since then goes to a stadium that just watched its team score 41. If Louisville's defense can't get stops in Raleigh, this turns into a game of trading possessions, and the team with the ball last will probably win it.

The early forecast is kind: low 70s, cloudy, light wind and about a 29% chance of rain, which is nothing that should slow down 2 offenses that want to throw. It's still 6 days out, so check back before kickoff. What's already clear is that 2 ACC teams with bruised records meet in Raleigh, both quarterbacks can carry a game, and neither defense has shown it can stop them for 60 minutes.

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack — Kienholz and Louisville Bring the Air Raid to Carter-Finley | Polymarket Odds · Barstool Bush