LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers

Oct 24, 202611:00 AM CTABCAuburn, AL
By JR·3 min read

TLDR: Auburn just went to Athens and took down No. 1 Georgia on the final play. Next up is a No. 22 LSU team that hasn't allowed a point since its last loss, and somebody's good feeling is about to end at Jordan-Hare.

SAT 10/24, 11:00 AM CT · Week 8ABC
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Kickoff 68°12 mph

No. 22 LSU (5-2) travels to unranked Auburn (3-2) after a 31-0 home shutout of a short-handed Mississippi State, while Auburn comes in off a last-second 27-24 upset of No. 1 Georgia in Athens built on 3 Georgia turnovers. The game turns on whether Sam Leavitt's clean, efficient offense travels better than LSU's defense has, since both of LSU's losses in the last 5 came on the road. The board has LSU as a clear road favorite with the total around 50.

LSU Tigers
  • Leavitt: 289 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT vs Mississippi State
  • Linebackers Dottery and Keys combined 22 tackles
  • Defense allowed 20 total points in last 3 home games
  • Both losses in last 5 came on the road
  • Allowed 32 at Ole Miss, 35 at Kentucky
  • Shutout came against MSU missing its QB and RB1
Auburn Tigers
  • Just beat No. 1 Georgia on the road
  • Defense forced 3 turnovers in Athens
  • Scored 39 and 43 in two of their home games
  • Georgia win needed a late fumble and penalty
  • Lost 44-39 to Florida at Jordan-Hare
  • RB Davenport and WR Smith out, no timetable

It starts at quarterback, and LSU's guy is playing as well as anyone in the league. Sam Leavitt went 31-of-38 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns with no picks in the 31-0 shutout of Mississippi State, the kind of efficient afternoon that had the offense running through him from the first series. Dilin Jones did the dirty work next to him with 84 rushing yards and 8 catches for 58 more. On the other side, Byrum Brown is Auburn's quarterback, coming off a win that came down to his team hanging around long enough for Georgia to beat itself.

Put an asterisk next to that LSU shutout. Mississippi State played without starting quarterback Kamario Taylor and lead back Fluff Bothwell, and the Bulldogs have now lost 2 straight by 30-plus. It was still LSU's first home shutout of an SEC opponent since 2006, and linebackers TJ Dottery (12 tackles) and Davhon Keys (10) ran the middle of the field all day. LSU is down receiver P. Wright III and safety D. Spears, both expected out for the year. Auburn is without receiver E. Smith and running back N. Davenport, neither with a return date. The market has the visitors as a clear road favorite despite the scalp Auburn just took.

Auburn's win in Athens deserves the hype, but look at how it happened. Gunner Stockton turned it over 3 times, and the last one, a fumble off a collision with his own center with 58 seconds left, put Auburn in range. A roughing-the-passer flag on Brown with 14 seconds left got them 15 more yards, and Alex McPherson hit from 34 as time expired. It's the biggest win of Alex Golesh's time at Auburn, and Georgia handed over a lot of it.

For LSU, this whole season has been decided by home and away. Both losses in the last 5 came on the road: 32-24 at Ole Miss and the 35-34 overtime loss at Kentucky. At Tiger Stadium they beat Texas A&M 35-6, McNeese 63-14 and now Mississippi State 31-0. A defense that has given up 0, 6 and 14 at home gave up 32 and 35 away from it, and Jordan-Hare at 11 AM local is no friendlier than either of those places.

10/17WvsMississippi State31-0
10/10L@12Kentucky34-35
10/03WvsMcNeese63-14
09/26WvsTexas A&M35-6
09/19L@7Ole Miss24-32
10/17W@5Georgia27-24
10/03L@11Tennessee14-24
09/26WvsVanderbilt21-15
09/19Lvs20Florida39-44
09/13WvsSouthern Miss43-8

Auburn has been streaky at home too. It ran Southern Miss off the field 43-8 and ground out a 21-15 win over Vanderbilt, but it also lost a 44-39 shootout to Florida on this same field. The Tennessee loss was the one where the offense went quiet, with 14 points in Knoxville. Their best result so far needed 3 takeaways and a gift at the end. Against a Leavitt offense that went 38 dropbacks without a turnover, Auburn probably won't get handed 3 short fields again.

Both teams sit at 2-2 in the SEC, so whoever loses is fading out of the conference race by late October. Weather won't matter: the forecast calls for 69 degrees, clear and light wind. Leavitt's form against the Auburn defense that just rattled Stockton is the matchup to watch, and so is whether LSU's road defense is the one that showed up in Oxford and Lexington or the one that just pitched a shutout.

LSU vs. Auburn: Polymarket Odds & Prediction (Oct. 24) — LSU Brings a Shutout to the Plains, Auburn Brings a Scalp · Barstool Bush