The Dukes come in 4-0 and sit first in the Sun Belt East standings, while Marshall was picked third in the division before the season. That turns this into an early divisional game with real stakes. A JMU win puts 2 games between the Dukes and a Marshall team that expected to be in the race. A Marshall upset puts the Herd right back in it and makes the preseason poll look conservative.
For Marshall, the question is whether Del Rio-Wilson can keep it close long enough for the Herd to do the thing they've done 3 weeks in a row, which is find a way to win at the end. For James Madison, it's whether the Dukes can get the separation Marshall's recent opponents couldn't. Two weeks of 1-score finishes suggest the Herd won't fold. The 45-0 loss in Happy Valley shows what happens when they're outmatched up front.
Gardner-Webb36-35
The early forecast for Harrisonburg calls for about 71 degrees with drizzle, a 27% chance of rain and a 10 mph wind. That's still 6 days out and could easily change, but a wet ball would favor whichever team can run it. It would also hurt a Marshall team that has needed its quarterback to win games late.
This is the first of the division's heavyweight games, and the table will look different afterward. Marshall has earned the benefit of the doubt in close games. James Madison has earned the benefit of the doubt, full stop. Saturday shows which of those is worth more in October.