Memphis shows up in Idaho as an almost entirely different team than the one that won 8 games a year ago. Boise State barely blinks.
Bush’s Picks
MEMBOIS
MEMBOIS
OverUnder
Best BetBoise State
Boise State's Madsen brings 25 career starts into a season where Memphis is still sorting out its QB1. That experience gap alone is a real edge for the Broncos, even before factoring in a Memphis roster that's replacing 21 of 22 starters. Back Boise State to win outright here.
Memphis
+Dallan Hayden brings proven every-down production
+Huff won titles fast at Marshall and Southern Miss
+New DC Guidry comes from a strong LSU defense
−Lost 21 of 22 starters off last year's roster
−No settled starting QB with zero tune-up games
−Almost the entire O-line and skill group is new
Boise State
+Madsen returns with 25 career starts of experience
+Favored to win a 4th straight conference title
+Returns 6 offensive and 5 defensive starters
−Madsen's efficiency and INTs trended worse last year
−Receiving corps is thin behind departures
−Own roster losing key pieces to the NFL
The quarterback picture says everything about where these two programs stand. Boise State brings back Maddux Madsen, a senior with 25 career starts who's started for the Broncos through 2 Pac-12 title runs. Memphis, meanwhile, doesn't even know who's taking the first snap yet — new coach Charles Huff imported Marcus Stokes and Air Noland through the portal, and with no tune-up game on the schedule, the winner of that camp battle is getting thrown straight into a hostile road environment.
That QB uncertainty is really a symptom of a total teardown in Memphis. Huff replaces Ryan Silverfield after Silverfield left for Arkansas, and the Tigers lost 21 of 22 starters off last year's roster in the shuffle — nearly 100% of the rushing production and almost all the passing production walked out the door. Huff leaned on familiarity to rebuild fast, bringing 12 players over from his old Southern Miss roster, headlined by running back Dallan Hayden. Boise State, by contrast, returns 6 starters on offense and 5 on defense and opens as a significant favorite to win a 4th straight conference championship.
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MEM Memphis
BOIS Boise State
None of that turnover guarantees Memphis struggles — Huff won a Sun Belt title at Marshall and turned Southern Miss around from 1-11 to 7-5 in a single year, and new defensive coordinator Lance Guidry spent last season working with a strong LSU defense. But asking a defense and offense built almost entirely of new pieces to go win on Boise's blue turf in September is about as tough a proving ground as there is.
Memphis Tigers
Sep 5?vs Arkansas State—
Aug 29?@ UNLV—
Boise State Broncos
Sep 5?@ Oregon—
Recent form.
Boise State isn't without its own questions. Madsen was actually more productive as a sophomore than as a junior — his completion rate and touchdown total both dipped while his interceptions climbed to 9, and the Broncos are working with a thin receiving corps after some key pieces moved on. Still, a proven passer and a veteran offensive line against a defense that's basically starting over is the kind of matchup that tends to favor experience, especially at home.
Memphis has real building blocks — Hayden's a proven every-down back, and the portal haul gives Huff talent even if it lacks continuity. The bigger question is whether that talent gels fast enough to survive a real road test this early. Boise State's title aspirations and Memphis's total reset make this a useful early gauge for both programs before conference play heats up.
