The shared opponents tell a mixed story. Both teams handled UAB easily: Memphis won 38-13 and South Florida won 30-10. East Carolina is more interesting. Memphis needed to hold on at home for a 41-34 shootout win over the Pirates, while South Florida held that same offense to 20 on the road and still lost by 3. The Bulls' defense did its job against ECU. The offense, which managed 17, did not.
That has been South Florida's problem all season. All 3 of its losses in the last 5 were close: 13-17 to Temple, 24-31 at UTSA and 17-20 at ECU. Two of them came with 17 points or fewer. A team that keeps opponents to around 20 and still goes 2-3 in its last 5 is leaving wins on the field. Against an offense like Memphis's, 17 points probably won't hold up.
Memphis has its own warning sign: Tulane. The Green Wave held the Tigers to 17 in a 31-17 loss, their only defeat in the last 5 and their only conference loss. That was the one time a defense really got physical with Memphis and controlled the game. ECU's 34 points also showed the Tigers' defense can be pulled into a track meet. So the question works both ways: can South Florida play the way Tulane did, and can Memphis keep this from turning into the ECU game?
The early forecast for Tampa calls for 74 degrees, light drizzle and a 10 mph wind, with about a 26% chance of rain. A wet Thursday night tends to favor the defense, and that suits the Bulls. It is still 6 days out, though, and Florida forecasts change. Memphis comes in rested and scoring at will. South Florida has the defense to slow the Tigers down, plays at home on a short week, and has kept finding ways to lose close games.
