The week's news is Malachi Toney. Miami's top receiver hurt his ankle in practice, had surgery this week and won't play. That's a big hole: 13 of Mensah's 25 touchdown passes this season have gone to Toney. It comes on top of a roster that had already lost WR Joshua Moore, RB CharMar Brown and TE L. Gilbert for the season, so Mark Fletcher Jr., who scored the go-ahead 2-yard touchdown on 4th down at UNC, now carries even more of the load. Notre Dame has its own holes. WR Q. Porter is out for the year, backup QB B. Hebert is out indefinitely, captain and linebacker Drayk Brown has been ruled out, and defensive tackles Francis Brewu and Jason Onye are questionable. The board has swung hard toward the Irish since the Toney news broke.
The record that matters is 8-0, and Miami has earned it, but the last month hasn't been as clean as the top ranking suggests. The Hurricanes gave up 35 to Florida State and then 35 more to a North Carolina team that led them in the 4th quarter. Miami only got out of Chapel Hill because Fletcher converted on 4th down and Bill Belichick's quarterback fumbled while getting hit, which set up Toney's 2nd touchdown. That's a team that can win a shootout. It isn't a team that has been shutting people down, and the guy who finished that shootout is now in a walking boot.
Notre Dame's only loss was 28-24 at BYU. Since then they've won the way good teams win in November, though not always pretty. Navy controlled the ball for more than 23 minutes of the first half and took a 14-13 game into the break. Then the Irish defense held Navy to 56 total yards after halftime, and Nolan James Jr. broke touchdown runs of 52 and 23 yards to finish with 107 yards on 9 carries. Miami doesn't run the triple option, so whatever slowed the Irish early isn't coming back Saturday. What's new is a defense playing without Drayk Brown and possibly 2 interior linemen, which is exactly where a Miami offense short on receivers will go looking for room.
The forecast is football weather for South Bend in November: 41 degrees and clear, 4 mph of wind and no chance of rain. Nothing about it should slow 2 offenses that have been scoring in the high 30s and up. Without Toney, Miami probably has to lean on Fletcher and spread the ball around more than it wants to. Notre Dame will lean on a run game that just ripped off explosive plays. Whichever defense gets a stop in the 4th quarter probably decides it.
