Look past the 52-17 win over UTEP and the Michigan offense gets thin. The Wolverines needed everything they had to get by Western Michigan 13-12, and the Oklahoma win topped out at 17 points. That's a team winning with defense and field position. It works until the other team is the one making the late play, which is exactly what happened in Iowa's final drive.
Eastern Illinois59-7Minnesota has its own dent. Mississippi State came into Huntington Bank Stadium and beat the Gophers 38-13, and that loss is why nobody treated this team as a sure thing in September. Since then it's been a 41-7 win over Akron and the road win at Washington. P.J. Fleck is in year 10, and a 2-0 Big Ten start with the Jug back in Minneapolis would be a real statement for this group. Anthony Smith, a preseason All-America edge rusher, now gets a Michigan line that has spent the week on the injury report.
The forecast is about as mild as early October in Minneapolis gets: 54 degrees, cloudy, 6 mph wind and an 8% chance of rain. Weather won't be an excuse for either offense. This one comes down to whether Michigan's line holds up against Smith and the Gophers' pass rush, and whether Lindsey makes the Wolverines' defense cover the whole field instead of sitting on Taylor.
Both teams know what a last-second finish feels like, one from each side. Michigan needs to show the Iowa loss was a one-off. Minnesota needs to show the Washington win wasn't. The Jug goes to whichever team handles a 1-score fourth quarter better, and neither has shown it can win comfortably against a real opponent.