The Paul Bunyan Trophy stays put on one sideline or heads to the other with two brand-new head coaches calling the shots for the first time — but the recent history in this one still runs heavily one direction.
Bush’s Picks
MSUMICH
MSUMICH
OverUnder
Best BetMichigan
Michigan brings back nearly its entire offense around Bryce Underwood and just hired a coach with a two-decade track record of winning at a high level. Michigan State is starting over at nearly every position behind a first-year head coach and a quarterback with a 4-game sample size. This is about as lopsided a projected talent gap as this rivalry has seen in years.
Michigan State
+Milivojevic showed promise in 4 late-season starts
+Fitzgerald landed 31 transfer additions
+Portal WR Nico Brown a potential 1,000-yard threat
−Jonathan Smith fired after 4-8 season
−44 players left via the transfer portal
−Lost 4 straight in this rivalry
Michigan
+Bryce Underwood returns as full-time starter
+Whittingham brings 177-88 track record from Utah
+Won 4 straight meetings in this rivalry
−Sherrone Moore fired for cause in December
−Lost 6 players in 2026 NFL Draft
−Entirely new coaching staff, unproven together
Michigan didn't plan on breaking in a new head coach this fast, but Sherrone Moore's for-cause firing in December 2025 pushed the Wolverines toward Kyle Whittingham, who left a 177-88 track record and a perfect 13-0 season behind at Utah for a 5-year deal in Ann Arbor. He inherits a defense that projects among the nation's best and, more importantly, Bryce Underwood — the former No. 1 overall recruit — locked in as the unquestioned starter after a freshman year that produced 14 total touchdowns.
Michigan State's rebuild looks a lot more foundational. Jonathan Smith lasted just 2 seasons before getting fired following a 4-8 finish, and Pat Fitzgerald steps in after 17 years at Northwestern to find a roster gutted by the portal — 44 players left, replaced by 31 incoming transfers and a signing class headlined by QB Kayd Coffman for the future. For now, Alessio Milivojevic gets the keys after taking over the final 4 games of last season, with Fitzgerald having actually coached him back in high school.
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MSU Michigan State
MICH Michigan
That's the gap oddsmakers will be pricing when lines eventually open for this one — a veteran program-builder with his full offense back against a first-year staff still figuring out who its playmakers even are. Whatever number the market lands on, don't expect it to be close.
Michigan State Spartans
Oct 16?vs Northwestern—
Oct 9?vs Illinois—
Oct 2?@ Wisconsin—
Sep 25?vs Nebraska—
Sep 19?@ Notre Dame—
Sep 12?vs Eastern Michigan—
Sep 4?vs Toledo—
Michigan Wolverines
Oct 30?@ Rutgers—
Oct 16?vs Penn State—
Oct 2?@ Minnesota—
Sep 25?vs Iowa—
Sep 19?vs UTEP—
Sep 12?vs Oklahoma—
Sep 5?vs Western Michigan—
Recent form.
The rivalry itself hasn't been kind to East Lansing lately — Michigan's won 4 straight, including a 49-0 wipeout in 2023, and leads the all-time series comfortably. Michigan State's calling card in 2026 is more about wide receiver Nico Brown, a portal add some outlets think could hit 1,000 yards, and whether Milivojevic's late-season flashes translate over a full year. It's a program looking for a foothold, not a signature win just yet — but stranger things have happened in this rivalry than a program in transition playing spoiler for a night.
