The quarterback news is only part of it. Michigan State has ruled out 13 players for Saturday night and listed 5 more as questionable. The outs include fullback Jay Coyne, tight end Joe Caudill, offensive lineman Tristan Comer and Jayden Savoury. Running back Cam Edwards (knee) and receiver C. Taplin (foot) had already been banged up for weeks, which leaves the Spartans thin at the skill spots against Michigan's most reliable unit. Michigan's own list is short: guard A. Sprague has been out since late September. The board has Michigan as a heavy favorite, priced like a team that knows exactly who it's facing.
That reputation got tested at Rutgers. Michigan won 28-21, but it was sloppy: penalties, big plays allowed, and an 80-yard catch-and-run touchdown from AJ Surace to Jourdin Houston in the first half. Michigan led by 8 after 3 quarters and by only 7 with 4:24 left in a game it was supposed to control. A Rutgers offense that managed just 249 total yards still finished within one score.
The 5-game skid hides how different those losses were. Nebraska and Wisconsin both won by 18 or more, and Wisconsin held the Spartans to 3 points. Then came 2 gut-punches at home: 38-37 to Illinois and 24-21 to Northwestern, each one score from snapping the streak. UCLA then won 28-10 on the road. The pattern is a defense that has given up at least 24 in all 5 games and an offense that only shows up some weeks.
Michigan's problem is the opposite. The defense has allowed 21 or fewer in all 5 recent games and kept the Wolverines in every one of them, but the offense scored 19 against Iowa, 14 at Minnesota and 6 against Indiana. Those 3 losses came by a combined 14 points. The 21-18 win over Penn State was the same kind of grind. Carr's day at Rutgers is the first sign in a month that Michigan can score without needing a short field.
The weather has improved since earlier in the week. Ann Arbor now shows 41 degrees, mostly sunny skies, no chance of rain and a 4 mph wind, so neither team gets to blame the conditions. For Michigan State, the season comes down to ending the skid against the opponent its fans care about most, possibly with its third quarterback option. For Michigan, it's a chance to break the run of close games and have this one settled before the 4th quarter.
