Two teams coming off 4-8 seasons collide when Michigan State visits Wisconsin — one program just fired its coach, the other is trying to save his job.
Bush’s Picks
MSUWIS
MSUWIS
OverUnder
Best BetWisconsin
Wisconsin's the more stable bet here even with Fickell's seat warming up — Michigan State just fired its coach after a 4-8 season and is breaking in a new staff, system and starting quarterback all at once. The Badgers have their own QB uncertainty, but they added proven production in Colton Joseph rather than starting from scratch. Lean Wisconsin at home in a game between two teams still finding their footing.
Michigan State
+Fresh regime under Fitzgerald resets a low bar
+Portal additions bolster the offensive and defensive lines
−Fired previous coach after a 4-8 finish
−SP+ projects MSU as the league's weakest team
Wisconsin
+Favorable 2026 schedule skips Big Ten's top teams
+Ranked transfer class, added dual-threat QB Joseph
−Fickell ranked No. 3 nationally on hot seat lists
−Lost Edwards to transfer, QB spot unsettled
Both quarterback rooms look completely different than they did a year ago. New Michigan State coach Pat Fitzgerald tabbed Alessio Milivojevic as his starter this spring, saying the staff "went all in" on him, with UCF transfer Cam Fancher behind him as insurance. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is starting over at the position after Billy Edwards Jr. — hobbled most of last season by a torn PCL — left for North Carolina. The Badgers went out and got Old Dominion's Colton Joseph, a dual-threat back who's thrown for over 4,250 yards and run for another 1,600 across his last two seasons.
The bigger story in Madison is Luke Fickell's seat, which ESPN ranked the 3rd-hottest in the country entering 2026, and the exit of AD Chris McIntosh only adds to the pressure. Wisconsin brought in 30-plus transfers this cycle — the most turnover of Fickell's tenure — headlined by Joseph and Louisville's Deuce Adams, with returning QB Danny O'Neil clinging to a roster spot after tossing 6 touchdowns against 5 interceptions last year. Michigan State's rebuild runs just as deep: roughly 32 transfers in, including UConn left tackle Ben Murawski and returning Miami defensive lineman Charles Brantley.
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MSU Michigan State
WIS Wisconsin
Neither side enters this one with much margin for error. MSU is coming off a coaching change after only two seasons under Jonathan Smith, and Wisconsin just watched a 22-year bowl streak snap. Vegas has taken notice — MSU's preseason win total sits as low as 3.5, while Wisconsin's lands around 6.5, with the Badgers favored to clear it.
Michigan State Spartans
Sep 25?vs Nebraska—
Sep 19?@ Notre Dame—
Sep 12?vs Eastern Michigan—
Sep 4?vs Toledo—
Wisconsin Badgers
Sep 25?@ Penn State—
Sep 19?vs Eastern Michigan—
Sep 12?vs Western Illinois—
Sep 6?@ Notre Dame—
Recent form.
Wisconsin still holds the historical edge, leading the all-time series 31-24, with MSU's 2019 blowout win in East Lansing (38-0) standing as the largest margin between these two. That history means little with both rosters this overhauled, but it's a reminder these programs have traded haymakers before. The schedule slot works in Wisconsin's favor too — the Badgers avoid Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan and Indiana in 2026, about as friendly a draw as the Big Ten offers.
Michigan State Spartans
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Wisconsin Badgers
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Wisconsin's own recent quarterback history is a real red flag — DJ Uiagalelei-era transfers Tanner Mordecai and Cam Van Dyke both got banged up before Edwards, so betting on Joseph staying upright all year is its own kind of risk. MSU's floor is lower on paper, with SP+ projecting just 4.4 wins and a 22% shot at bowl eligibility, but a first-year staff installing a new identity can be unpredictable in either direction. This is a measuring-stick game for both rebuilds before conference play tightens.
