Notre Dame is the one opponent both teams have played, so it's the easiest yardstick. Wisconsin lost to the Irish by 28 and Michigan State lost by 17. That was September, a lot has happened since, and one opponent doesn't settle much. It still pushes back on the idea that the Badgers are a different class from the Spartans, which is roughly how the board treats this one with Wisconsin a comfortable favorite.
Western Illinois36-9The bigger question for Wisconsin is what's left after Penn State. Coming off a road upset and heading into a home game against an unranked opponent is a classic trap spot on paper. How sharp the Badgers are early will say a lot about whether that win was a turning point or just one good afternoon. Camp Randall helps. So does the fact that this is the last game before Wisconsin goes to UCLA on October 17, so the Badgers have no reason to look past it.
For Michigan State, the job is simple to describe and hard to do: keep this within a score into the fourth quarter and make a Wisconsin team that just spent a lot of energy in State College grind for it. The early forecast won't give either side an excuse. It calls for 56 degrees and cloudy, a 22 percent chance of rain and 6 mph of wind. That's ordinary October football weather, and neither offense will have the conditions to blame.
Both teams went into Big Ten play at 2-1. Wisconsin already has a signature win. Michigan State is still looking for one, and beating the team that just took down Penn State in its own building would be a strong early résumé for Fitzgerald.