A once-reliable CUSA power and a program still hunting its first winning season in years meet in Week 12, and only one side looks built to climb the standings from here.
Bush’s Picks
MTSULIB
MTSULIB
OverUnder
Best BetLiberty
Liberty's two decades of near-annual bowl trips and a reloaded portal class make the Flames the far more stable program walking into this one, even coming off a rare down year. Middle Tennessee is still trying to find its footing after two straight 3-9 seasons under Mason, and there's no signal yet that the portal additions have closed that gap. Back Liberty at home as the side more likely to be the better team on the day.
Middle Tennessee
+Nine incoming transfers to reload the roster
+Continuity in year 3 under Derek Mason
−Back-to-back 3-9 seasons under Mason
−Hasn't reached a bowl game since 2022
Liberty
+Bowled nearly every year for two decades before 2025
+Added Kam Davis and Deshawn Purdie via the portal
−First losing season in 20 years came in 2025
−Lost top two starting corners, defense unproven
This one is about two programs trying to prove last year was the outlier, not the new normal. Liberty stumbled to a 4-8 record in 2025, snapping a 20-year run without a losing season, while Middle Tennessee has now gone 3-9 in back-to-back years under Derek Mason. Both coaches enter Saturday, November 14 with a roster overhaul behind them and not much room left for another step back.
Liberty's offseason has centered on fixing the two spots that sank the 2025 season: quarterback play and the secondary. The Flames' quarterbacks threw more interceptions than touchdowns a year ago, which is why Wake Forest transfer Deshawn Purdie is being counted on to stabilize things, alongside Florida State running back addition Kam Davis. On defense, new coordinator Shawn Quinn inherits a corner group that lost its top two starters and is reportedly shifting toward more zone coverage after years of man-heavy schemes.
Show fees
2:30 PM CT
Spread
ML
Total
MTSU Middle Tennessee
LIB Liberty
Middle Tennessee's turnaround plan leans on volume in the transfer portal, with nine incoming additions replacing six departures as Mason tries to find pieces that were missing during two straight 3-9 finishes. The Blue Raiders haven't been bowl eligible since 2022, and a road trip to Lynchburg is exactly the kind of game that either gets that streak moving in the right direction or extends it deep into another rebuilding year.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Nov 7?vs Western Kentucky—
Oct 28?vs Kennesaw State—
Oct 20?@ Florida International—
Oct 13?vs Delaware—
Oct 2?@ Kansas—
Sep 26?@ Jacksonville State—
Sep 19?vs Nevada—
Sep 12?@ Marshall—
Sep 5?vs Murray State—
Liberty Flames
Nov 7?@ New Mexico State—
Oct 31?vs Florida International—
Oct 22?@ Kennesaw State—
Oct 8?vs Sam Houston—
Oct 2?@ Delaware—
Sep 24?@ Coastal Carolina—
Sep 19?vs Ball State—
Sep 12?vs Gardner-Webb—
Sep 5?@ James Madison—
Recent form.
The gap on paper is real. Liberty has spent nearly two decades as a program that reaches the postseason nearly every year, and a single down season doesn't erase that infrastructure or the talent Chadwell has stockpiled through the portal. Middle Tennessee, by contrast, is still searching for the roster identity that gets it out of the CUSA basement under Mason.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Liberty Flames
(0)
Fully healthy — no injuries on ESPN's report
Injury report — info via ESPN.
Neither team is walking in fully formed. Liberty's new-look secondary hasn't been tested in live snaps yet, and Purdie is stepping into QB1 duties without much of a track record as a starter. That leaves a door open for Middle Tennessee if its portal reinforcements gel quickly enough, even if the recent history says Liberty should still be the far more finished product on Saturday.
